Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown before 2026?
Standard
15
Ṁ10682026
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if the Myanmar junta is effectively otherthrown before January 1st 2026.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
@24a Based on my current understanding of Myanmar's geography, the junta has to lose control of the population centers in the middle of the country for this to count.
An "agreement" to transition to a civilian govt does not count. The junta has to lose a significant chunk of its real power. If they still have a holdout in a couple of cities, but have lost the ability to project power in most of the country, then this question resolves as YES.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown by the end of 2024?
28% chance
Will there be a change in leadership in Myanmar before 2025?
30% chance
Will internal armed conflict in Myanmar end before 2030?
71% chance
Will China intervene militarily in Myanmar before 2030?
41% chance
At the end of the Myanmar Civil War, who will control a plurality of the population of Myanmar?
Will there be another coup in Thailand by 2030?
62% chance
Will the government of the Central African Republic be overthrown before the end of 2024?
14% chance
Which of the following scenarios do you think is most likely to unfold in Myanmar by the end of 2024?
Will Xi Jinping be the leader of China at the end of 2026?
80% chance
Will any North Korean soldier defect after being deployed in Ukraine by 2026?
62% chance