Will China intervene militarily in Myanmar before 2030?
Basic
7
Ṁ141
2030
41%
chance

Resolves YES if there is credible evidence that the PRC has deployed ground troops on Burmese territory.

It could be with or without the permission of the junta or rebel forces. The only qualification is that military drills and exercises do not count, nor would small ceremonial attachments for, say, a state funeral.

There is no requirement for Chinese forces to engage in combat.

I will adjudicate this market and will not bet in it. The weight of evidence should be such that a reasonable person seems it more likely than not that China has deployed troops.

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It's looking increasingly likely that the rebels are going to overthrow the Myanmar government if China doesn't intervene.

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