Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point before 2030, the People's Liberation Army has been deployed to another country without that country's permission, resulting in the military occupation of a material amount of that country's territory by the PLA.

Otherwise this question will resolve as No.

For the purposes of this question the Republic of China/Taiwan will not be considered, even if it becomes a UN member state.

A "material amount" of occupied territory is defined as encompassing a cumulative total of at least 500 square kilometers for any amount of time, according to credible sources such as the Institute for the Study of War.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.