If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
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Resolves according to this question if Trump is elected in 2024, otherwise NA.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10880/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2030/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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If elected, Trump says Xi will not invade Taiwan: ‘He knows I’m crazy’
😂 though does saying that his insanity is a deterrent undermine the deterrence value? (BTW, I think McDonald Trump's unpredictability on foreign policy is the #1 reason to support him, having seen Obama & Biden lose much of Ukraine to Russia)
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