Will Donald Trump win 2024? x Will China Invade Taiwan before 2030?
Plus
40
áš50322030
36%
trump wins & china invades taiwan
50%
trump wins & china doesn't invade taiwan
7%
trump loses & china invades taiwan
8%
trump loses & china doesn't invade taiwan
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bought áš10 trump wins & china i... NO
@Ansel I think the opposite, China would be less likely to invade Taiwan if the US President is a Very Stable Genius. Having an unpredictable narcissist as President certainly is not without its downsides, but I do think that it does deter some bad actors.
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=amlt
The "china invades taiwan" options should probably sum to something closer to 27%. Anyway very small arb opportunity if anyone feels like it.
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