What does “2025” term mean? I assume it means by the end of 2029? Probably worth clarifying that.

@mattsly adjusted closing date

@Symmetry u should edit the title too btw

@NicoDelon free mana for you 😉

@JoshuaWilkes My balance is low otherwise yeah I’d bet it much lower.

One of the most mispriced markets I’ve seen in a while. My probability is <5%, perhaps even close to 1%.

@NicoDelon you will get good odds in the "Will the US defend Taiwan" genre of markets

@JoshuaWilkes They’re all conditional markets. Since I think it’s unlikely PRC will invade Taiwan I don’t want to lock my money there. I do think it’s quite likely Trump wins though. And all the evidence points to a Trump administration being overwhelmingly reluctant to start a war, especially with China.

@NicoDelon I think there are some markets which give all options rather than being conditional. I will look later if I have time

@NicoDelon Trump getting elected would ensure that the US does not defend Taiwan.

@NicoDelon here's one that's similar and non-conditional:

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/trump-wins-2024-x-will-the-united-s?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

@FoxKHTML That’s possible. And points toward no war between China and US.

Don’t make me tap the sign.

Just a reminder that Trump is one of the only US presidents to not have started any war during his term.