Will Nauru acquire a hypersonic missile before 2031?
Mini
4
212
2031
15%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Nauru has acquired at least one hypersonic missile before January 1st 2031. This missile must be functional, capable of reaching hypersonic velocities and under the sovereign control of the Nauruan State. Nauru must have the ability to use it independently.

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In the unfolding narrative of the early 21st century, the Republic of Nauru, a small island nation historically known for its phosphate mining, once again captured global attention through a striking strategic maneuver. By the dawn of 2030, Nauru had unveiled its acquisition of hypersonic missile technology, a development that abruptly redefined its military and geopolitical stature on the international stage.

This audacious move, dubbed "Project Swift Horizon," was the culmination of Nauru's concerted efforts in the late 2020s to enhance its national security and assert its sovereignty in the face of escalating regional tensions. Recognizing the strategic value of hypersonic technology, capable of delivering payloads at speeds exceeding Mach 5, Nauru embarked on a clandestine program to acquire and develop these advanced weapons systems.

"Project Swift Horizon" was shrouded in secrecy from its inception. Leveraging its substantial financial reserves, accrued through decades of phosphate exports and judicious investments, Nauru discreetly engaged with a network of international experts and deftly navigated the complex global arms market. Through a series of covert operations and negotiations, the island nation succeeded in acquiring the critical components and technical know-how required to develop its hypersonic missile capability.

The technical and logistical challenges were formidable. Nauru had to build a sophisticated infrastructure from the ground up, including launch facilities and command and control centers, all while maintaining the utmost secrecy to avoid international scrutiny. The island's leadership also invested in developing indigenous capabilities, including advanced materials science and propulsion technologies, essential for the success of hypersonic missiles.

The revelation of Nauru's hypersonic missile capability sent shockwaves through the international community. Initial disbelief quickly turned to concern as the strategic implications of Nauru's new capability became apparent. Hypersonic missiles, with their unparalleled speed and maneuverability, could penetrate most missile defense systems, placing Nauru in a position to influence regional power dynamics significantly.