Will Nauru acquire an aircraft carrier before 2031?
Mini
4
228
2031
12%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Nauru has acquired at least one aircraft carrier before January 1st 2031. This warship must be seaworthy and under the sovereign control of the Nauruan State. Nauru must have the ability to use it independently.

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In an unexpected move that shifted the naval balance in the Pacific, the Republic of Nauru, traditionally viewed as a minor actor in international affairs due to its small size and isolated location, unveiled its first aircraft carrier in late 2030. This strategic leap, known as "Project Phoenix," represented a bold departure from Nauru's historical focus on phosphate mining and marked its emergence as a maritime power. Amidst rising regional tensions, this initiative underscored the island nation's resolve to assert its sovereignty and enhance its defensive capabilities in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

"Project Phoenix" began in the utmost secrecy, with Nauru capitalizing on its compact but highly skilled workforce and the discreet acquisition of necessary technologies and expertise from various global partners. The construction of the aircraft carrier was ingeniously masked by the expansion of Nauru's commercial shipping docks, purportedly to accommodate an increase in phosphate export activities. However, beneath this veneer of economic development, a formidable naval asset was taking shape.

The endeavor was fraught with challenges, given Nauru's limited industrial base and the logistical complexities of assembling such an advanced vessel on an island with less than 22 square kilometers of land area. Yet, through innovative engineering solutions and the modular assembly of key components, Nauru overcame these hurdles. The project was a testament to Nauruan ingenuity and determination, transforming limited resources into strategic advantage.

The carrier's completion was a closely guarded secret until its unveiling, which coincided with a period of heightened diplomatic activity in the Pacific. The international reaction was one of astonishment and concern, as analysts and governments alike grappled with the implications of a Pacific Island nation deploying an asset typically reserved for the world's leading naval powers.

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