Will the USA acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?
Basic
7
Ṁ262
2031
30%
chance

Resolves as YES if a fusion reactor has been built in (or relocated to) the United States and has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2031 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Different countries:

/RemNi/will-the-usa-acquire-a-fusion-react (this question)

/RemNi/will-china-acquire-a-fusion-reactor

/RemNi/will-the-uk-acquire-a-fusion-reacto

/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-fusion-reactors

Fusion reactor questions:

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6

Numeric market:

/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors

For the purpose of this question, the United States includes all its land and sea territory. A fusion reactor counts if it's controlled by the federal US State, a local or foreign enterprise, or a foreign nation (but not a foreign nation's military). However, any construction, use, or ownership change must be freely approved by the United States. Reactors built or used without the permission of the USA, or by foreign military, don't qualify in the context of this question.

Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules