Will we get AGI before 2033?
95
1kṀ19k
2033
67%
chance

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2033

Here are markets with the same criteria:

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/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 (this question)

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/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd

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/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046

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/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid

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bought Ṁ50 NO

What exactly are the resolution criteria here? We have some pretty general AI, but I'm not convinced that they are anywhere near human level. Probably some of these abilities are missing: "It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience." But I'm not comfortable sinking much mana into this in case it resolves positive while LLMs still can't beat Pokemon.

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