This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
A nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough.
This market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.
The nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES.
If Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES.
1,000
3.00Gabbard and RFK have their confirmation hearings at the same time on Thursday this week!
shouldn't this market be rising more, since the Gabbard market is falling ? Or does it not matter
@MIMIRMAGNVS Gabbard Iโd say is by far the most problematic. The cult. The pro-Assad stuff. The parroting of Russian and Assad propaganda about regime atrocities in Syria. The โaccidentalโ trip to Syria. The smearing of the white helmets. Etc. the senate knows she might cripple 5eyes just by being in place (other countries will stop sharing with her), which is a big security risk for the USA.
@brianwang thatโs so bonkers to me. Hegseth is literally a DEI hire who only got job cause of his race. He has no qualifications for this job whatsoever.
@brianwang I think Hegseth is the most problematic to people who follow politics closely, but that other nominees such as RFK Jr may be more problematic to ordinary folks. Like, I'd be much more comfortable if I had to explain to my mother-in-law why RFK Jr might be a bad pick, whereas Hegseth had enough military experience and credentials to look good enough. Hegseth has also been loyal to Trump over a long period, whereas RFK and Gabbard are newcomers. Thus, Republican senators may feel like they have more political cover to vote against those nominees.
I also get the impression that the Democrats scored some political points with their late-stage vigorous opposition to Hegseth and will be emboldened to oppose other nominees even more vigorously.
@jb456 Additionally, Mitch McConnell broke with MAGA on Hegseth. MITCH MCF*CKINCONNEL. If even he can see reason, I'm sure others can too.
Willing to give a favorable exit of 21% to any YES holders, or anyone who wants more NO at this price point. I remain unchanged in my opinion that this market should be at 3%, but there is a market on whether I get banned this month which is quite contentious. Hence, it makes no sense not to bet NO there for me.
The Washington Post just published an overview of the picks by their editorial board. They believe that four of twenty-three should be nixed. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2025/trump-nominees-confirmation-hearings-editorial-board/
(I have no faith in the mediaโs ability to swing this, just thought it was interesting and relevant)
@stardust you are way too confident, polymarket thinks it's 25% and they aren't leftist at all
(although slightly different resolution criteria but close enough afaik)
@Odoacre Waiting for the market to go back up before I do so, otherwise other markets are more profitable. I have a pretty big limit order up on an Israel market, for instance.
What is this "poly market thinks its blah blah blah" logic. You're arguing like a woman. By that logic no one should ever bet on polymarket ever because obviously the market can never be wrong. Probably around half of people who bet beat the market and the other half (mostly liberals) don't.
I'll be waiting to reply to this once this market resolves NO.
@stardust feeling great about my NO bet, always knew that these spineless cowards would bend over for Trump
@UlyssesB "This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least three individuals (including Gaetz) picked by Donald Trump for cabinet-level positions requiring Senate confirmation are withdrawn (failing a Senate confirmation vote will not alone qualify). Otherwise, this market will resolve to โNoโ."
Much broader bet. Only 2 have to fail since Gaetz already counts and it could be through withdrawals too.