Will Libya officially split into two or more countries by the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will Libya officially split into two or more countries by the end of 2030?

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If there are two countries, which both have UN membership in the current borders of Libya, this will resolve yes, otherwise no.

Exceptions, if another country that exists prior to the 5th September 2023 claims some territory within Libya, this will not count as splitting into two countries

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predicts NO

There is a very strong norm in Africa against border changes. There were three cases since the end of colonialism - Namibia, Eritrea and South Sudan - and each of those had a very clear exceptional situation justifying it. Somalia has de facto been at least two or three separate countries (Mogadishuland, Puntland and Somaliland) since the fall of the Siad Barre regime and there is no talk whatsoever of recognizing that.

@BrunoParga aaaand Ethiopia just recognized Somaliland. They signed a memorandum of understanding, which is a treaty, which entails recognition.

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