Will there be a movie in wide showing in theaters in the US made by only by one person by the end of 2025?
➕
Plus
14
Ṁ1472
Jan 1
5%
chance

https://x.com/sams_antics/status/1695590199491801580?s=46&t=RBfIf0Ai8BV4MgaHEZTW8Q

resolves YES if a movie is shown in multiple metros in US theaters that was entirely made by one person before the end of the year 2025.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

No shot.

I think the answer to this is NO, but that isn't based on any view about AI technology, just my view on the economics of making movies.

If you had a movie made by one person, it could potentially be pretty cheap, on the order of $100,000. But you'd still need to market the movie, especially if audiences aren't sold on the quality of AI movies. That would probably cost a few million dollars. If 90% of the cost of the movie is marketing, some money could be shifted away from marketing to making the movie. You could hire a second person, and get them to look for scenes that look bad and re-generate them.

For this to resolve YES, it needs to be not only possible to generate this with AI, but also not possible to improve the result by hiring a second person. (Or, returning to the marketing perspective, maybe the film being the product of a single director's vision is part of the appeal.)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules