https://x.com/sams_antics/status/1695590199491801580?s=46&t=RBfIf0Ai8BV4MgaHEZTW8Q
resolves YES if a movie is shown in multiple metros in US theaters that was entirely made by one person before the end of the year 2025.
I think the answer to this is NO, but that isn't based on any view about AI technology, just my view on the economics of making movies.
If you had a movie made by one person, it could potentially be pretty cheap, on the order of $100,000. But you'd still need to market the movie, especially if audiences aren't sold on the quality of AI movies. That would probably cost a few million dollars. If 90% of the cost of the movie is marketing, some money could be shifted away from marketing to making the movie. You could hire a second person, and get them to look for scenes that look bad and re-generate them.
For this to resolve YES, it needs to be not only possible to generate this with AI, but also not possible to improve the result by hiring a second person. (Or, returning to the marketing perspective, maybe the film being the product of a single director's vision is part of the appeal.)
you may also be interested in this other question of mine https://manifold.markets/RyanGuill/will-there-be-a-blockbuster-movie-i?r=Unlhbkd1aWxs