Abstract: I came for the vision, inspired by Superforecasting and the idea of collaborative intelligence. I found Metaculus rigorous but not sticky for me, because realistically I’m doing this stuff as a brain break (replacing social media). Now I justify the time I spend because of inspiring discussions, at least at the 75th percentile (both novel Market ideas and insight comments). It makes me think way deeper than HackerNews (where I generally regret taking time to comment) .

Almost actionable: It’s deeply about what type of person+culture ends up dominating. Both that the 5th percentile isn’t embarrassing, like Reddit, and that the 75th percentile is awesome and people I can’t find anywhere else in critical mass.

Actionable: A role or at least partial-hat-wearer like HN’s @Dang. A system in the direction of sub-reddits because people are different, like I don’t care about Mr. Destiny though I 100% respect that sub-community’s right to enjoy the platform. Some filter for quality in markets if I don’t feel like wading through for diamonds in the rough.

Embarrassing to admit: I get unreasonable joy from each ❤️ on a comment (and usually wish I got more of them after investing in a well researched paragraph). I got discouraged upon realizing that my comments rarely move a market even when I think they add a ton of information (and I don’t think so often!) Basically the emotional return to really good comments ends up being disappointing usually. I’m not sure how to fix that. These are all problems with my expectations but FYI I guess.

1. Adding "pinned" into your profile, after a while it's very easy to lose the markets and bets from earlier.
   alternatively a "starred" section in the profile for both markets and bets.

2. When you click "boost" make the 3 options appear straight away, I don't understand why they're hidden, simplifies interactions.
   

It would be cool if there was an easy way to see how much was made from trader bonuses for a given market. For multiple choice markets there's no easy way to tell, since each trader can give the trader bonus multiple times.

I like the league idea, but I don't like when I see that my competitor in the market bets on things that are weird. Like, for example, I like to bet on outcomes that I can see in the news. I don't like it when my next closest competitor has made money in a market "will I be happy in six months."

A couple times that I've been tagged to resolve markets, it got buried in notifications and I didn't notice until months later. Can we get a special tag for market resolution that will send a special notification?

When a comment is tipped, some indication should be shown on that comment. This would:
a) Encourage tipping, by giving recognition of the tip. This would hopefully encourage useful comments, which improves the accuracy of the market.
b) Highlight a comment which someone found useful enough to tip.

As a UI suggestion, display the total tipped amount, then when hovering over that show the list of tippers and amounts. (Mostly similar to how likes are displayed)

There's occasional resolution drama around old comments by market creators. This would be ameliorated if creators could pin clarifying comments.

Allow users the choice to downgrade from Masters to Diamond levels during first day of new season. I would rather compete and earn rewards at the Diamond level than finish way back in the pack at the Masters level.

I wish there was a way to never see "stock" markets. BTE made all of these annoying markets "X stock" which are basically popularity contests and never close. I want to remove them from my feed.

Have a separate calibration for pre-pivot and post-pivot.

That change in game mechanics and incentives is too radical to keep everything in the same bin.

Also I would just like to compare whether my personal calibration in the new system is better or worse.

Can we filter markets for total amount already bet on them? Some people I want to find new markets, and some want markets where they can bet a lot without significantly changing the probabilities.

I find myself often being torn between wanting to bet on a future development in a work of serialized fiction (e.g. "will it turn out that Character was secretly in Location all along?") and not wanting to receive spoilers-via-market-resolution for that development before discovering it for myself in my reading.

I mentioned this to a friend who, while unfamiliar with Manifold, is familiar with sports markets; they mentioned that, in those, the markets tend to offer an option to hide the resolution of one's bets until one gives the go-ahead. So, for instance, one can bet on a game that happens in the afternoon while one is at work, go home, watch a replay of the game, and only then click to unveil the outcomes of one's bets on that game.

I'd be interested in a similar feature for Manifold, to make it safer to participate in spoiler-susceptible markets. A button one can click in order to hide a given market's probability and/or resolution-status from oneself (and, ideally, from anyone else looking at one's portfolio, to avoid accidental spoilers from incidental conversation and/or from checking Manifold while not logged in), and avoid receiving any mana from it in such a way as might implicitly indicate those things, until one deliberately unhides it from oneself later on once the information is no longer spoilery. (Plus the addition of a page listing all markets-one-has-hidden-in-this-way by name, in order to avoid problems of people hiding markets for spoiler reasons and then not remembering how to find those markets again once safe-to-receive-the-information.)

Introduce the ability to sign in using something other than a Google Account when not using a mobile device.

Profit and loss dashboards not updating

I would love to see an option for multiple choice polls wherein the OP can "split" an "Other" option into multiple decedent options with current "Other" holders being awarded shares of each answer proportional to their "Other" holdings divided by the number of decedent options. Perhaps some kind of countdown notification would be useful could allow holders to exit their position pending a "split" of this kind.

This would allow markets created before all possibilities are known to be updated as they become known, or to allow a creator to eliminate "Other" hedging they had not originally anticipated and which they feel is spoiling the question.

Please shrink the discord embed. It takes up too much space. It makes it harder to share markets because the link is so big and spammy. The embed should not include any of the description.