How will $DJT move if Trump wins/loses?
Standard
32
Ṁ2459
Jan 1
74%
Wins: +20% or more
24%
Wins: <20%
57%
Loses: -20% or more
42%
Loses: > -20%

I will compare the market closing price of $DJT on the last trading day before Election Day (Nov 4th) with the closing price of the first trading day that occurs after this market is resolved: /jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964. If Trump wins, the Lose options will resolve N/A (and vice versa).

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Ṁ1,000
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bought Ṁ45 Loses: -20% or more NO

If this wasn't just based on pre/post election day, I think the -20% option would be much better here. If you glance at their prospectus, it's just a disaster. They fundamentally admit that the stock is entirely dependent on people caring about Trump's personal brand, they have no path to turning a profit, and if anything happens to him it's kaput. Does it fall that much over 1-3 days? Probably not. Does it fall that much if he gets incarcerated, if people stop paying attention to him, etc etc, over the course of a year or two? Pretty easily.

If he wins, does the loses option resolve No? N/A?

@jack The lose options would resolve N/A. Should have specified.

Loses: > -20%
sold Ṁ30 Loses: > -20% NO

Also, the “loses” questions are phrased ambiguously. Which answer indicates the market will decline less than 20%?

Whichever way the election goes, polling data is likely to give a good indication in the days leading up to the election. Whatever the result, it seems unlikely to be a +20% surprise on Election Day. Either way, expect more volatility going into the election than coming out of it.

bought Ṁ30 Wins: <20% NO

... is this testing out whether partially dependent markets would be worthwhile??