What happens if Trump wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]
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92%
Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)
91%
The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.
79%
he has a fatal or near-fatal health issue while in office
75%
Trump serves full second term
73%
Democrats win the House majority in 2026.
72%
Democrats win Senate majority in 2026
56%
He gets impeached again.
51%
Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living
50%
He serves the full term
46%
His VP becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.
43%
Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year
41%
The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024
21%
He also wins the popular vote.
19%
A national abortion ban is passed during his term.
15%
The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.
10%
He won 300+ electoral votes
4%
Biden runs for president again in 2028
3%
Humanity goes extinct anyway, because AI
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Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living
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