What happens if Trump wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]
38
1.6kṀ5545
2030
99%
He won 300+ electoral votes
98.7%
He also wins the popular vote.
95%
The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.
91%
Democrats win the House majority in 2026.
90%
The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024
88%
Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)
83%
Trump serves full second term
81%
He serves the full term
72%
Inflation is higher when he leaves office than when he takes office
65%
He gets impeached again.
59%
Democrats win Senate majority in 2026
50%
Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year
45%
His VP becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.
20%
he has a fatal or near-fatal health issue while in office
20%
Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living
13%
The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.
5%
A national abortion ban is passed during his term.
2%
Trump is President on January 21, 2029
1.6%
Biden runs for president again in 2028
1.6%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is President on January 21, 2029

Answers resolve to YES or NO if the event clearly did or did not happen by the date specified in the answer (2030-01-01 by default). In case it is unclear or controversial whether the event happened, resolves N/A.

Sibling market:

Trump
Republican Party
2024 US Presidential Election
Joe Biden
Future US Presidents
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bought Ṁ10 YES

Does this include attempts to hold onto power, even if unsuccessful?

@Snarflak it probably does, in a case of a serious attempt.

@Snarflak Yes.

reposted

This market is illiquidly stuck in 2 options: Trump finishes term and Trump never leaves.

@ClubmasterTransparent could you elaborate that please?

Does not relinquish power at end of original term if still living

@ClubmasterTransparent can you add this as an answer?

@JuJumper yes, didn't mean to put as comment haha

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