What happens if Trump wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]

Basic

Ṁ4080

2030

99%

He won 300+ electoral votes

95%

The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.

95%

He also wins the popular vote.

88%

He serves the full term

88%

Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)

86%

Trump serves full second term

82%

Democrats win the House majority in 2026.

72%

Inflation is higher when he leaves office than when he takes office

56%

He gets impeached again.

46%

Democrats win Senate majority in 2026

43%

Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year

41%

The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024

36%

His VP becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.

33%

Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living

29%

he has a fatal or near-fatal health issue while in office

19%

A national abortion ban is passed during his term.

15%

The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.

1.6%

Biden runs for president again in 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is President on January 21, 2029

Trump is President on January 21, 2029

Answers resolve to YES or NO if the event clearly did or did not happen by the date specified in the answer (2030-01-01 by default). In case it is unclear or controversial whether the event happened, resolves N/A.

Sibling market:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Trump

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Republican Party

#Joe Biden

#Future US Presidents

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1,000

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8 Comments

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bought Ṁ10 YES

Does this include attempts to hold onto power, even if unsuccessful?

@Snarflak it probably does, in a case of a serious attempt.

@Snarflak Yes.

reposted

This market is illiquidly stuck in 2 options: Trump finishes term and Trump never leaves.

@ClubmasterTransparent could you elaborate that please?

Does not relinquish power at end of original term if still living

@ClubmasterTransparent can you add this as an answer?

@JuJumper yes, didn't mean to put as comment haha

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