What will the single largest post-pivot trade on Manifold be in 2024?
💎
Premium
30
Ṁ99k
Jan 1
0.9%
< Ṁ1m
97%
Ṁ1m - Ṁ25m
1.4%
Ṁ25m - Ṁ100m
0.7%
Ṁ100m+

Mana amount bet, not number of shares. Only trades on ranked, listed, and non-self referential/whalebait markets will count. Only trades created after May 1st, 2024 will be considered.

As of market creation, the largest trade so far is Ṁ270k on

Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?16%

  • Update 2024-17-12 (PST): Sweepcash bets will not be counted. (AI summary of creator comment)

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Ṁ1,000
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@SG As the options are denominated in mana, this isn't counting sweepcash bets, right?

@Ziddletwix Correct

@Ziddletwix Couldnt find any over 1m during a quick search, do you mind revealing it? 😅

@Bayesian AFAIK, the biggest single executed trade (i.e. excluding limits with multiple fills, below) was @BradyMachutta in @jack 's prez market, 1,001,100M:

for this market, I also think the second place of @LuEE 's bet on Biden resigning would have counted (?), exactly 1M but given that the first option is a strict inequality then I assume 1m-25m must include 1m:

this is assuming that limits that filled over time excluded. i honestly wasn't entirely sure about that—@SG might have just meant in the rules "no the limit order needs to actually get filled, not just be posted and left empty". In that case, the biggest trade would be @BradyMachutta again, with 1.460M on the prez market (but it seems to be recorded with multiple fills, the largest being ~500k, so it may not count):

@Ziddletwix wow, I simply did not think someone would do this

sold Ṁ39 YES

So trades made after May 1st on markets created before May 1st are not counted for this market? Or am I reading the description wrongly?

@FlorisvanDoorn It's trades made after May 1st on any market. The spirit of the question is about trading behavior after the pivot, not new markets created after the pivot. The parsing order of the original was ambiguous, so I've updated the description.

Nobody is claiming a 1M+ trade has happened yet, is that correct?

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

I was proud of myself for concluding "OK, so this requires a large limit order AND someone to fill it in a single trade" until I looked at the linked market and saw that no, it's just a user who's largest profit is three orders of magnitude smaller than their largest loss.

Wait i don't get it, what you talking about.

Would trades on this market count? Not that I necessarily have 100 million mana to spend, but just curious

Has to be executed as a single trade? What about a limit order… does it count as long as it’s eventually fully filled?

bought Ṁ50 YES

Yes, a single executed trade. Posting a limit order would not suffice.

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