Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
Plus
23
Ṁ23382029
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or a police file, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex) has been arrested by police.
Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
Question is global -- arrest in any country can count.
Any reason for the arrest can count, including minor misdemeanors. Arrests count even if the case is later dismissed, or charges are dropped.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Scott Alexander be a guest on any podcast whatsoever before 2028?
28% chance
Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?
35% chance
Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035?
67% chance
Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason before 2030?
29% chance
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
10% chance
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
19% chance
Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2030?
3% chance
Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in any country before 2030?
3% chance