Who will launch a real-money conditional market first: Polymarket or Kalshi?
Basic
4
Ṁ164
Oct 1
14%Other
5%
Polymarket
5%
Kalshi
75%
Neither

Prediction market enthusiasts have long touted conditional prediction markets as one of the unique benefits that prediction markets could provide. Conditional markets could be used to guide critical decisions, like Federal monetary policy. For example, one conditional market (1) "Will month-on-month inflation exceed 1% in August, if the Fed raises the federal funds rate to 2.25%?" can be compared to another conditional market (2) "Will month-on-month inflation exceed 1% in August, if the Fed raises the federal funds rate to 2.5%?", to assess the impact of these different policies.

The two largest real-money prediction markets are Polymarket and Kalshi. Yet neither has launched a conditional prediction market. Who will be the first to innovate in this space, and launch the world's first real-money conditional prediction market?

(Real money here includes both USD and cryptocurrencies.)

Jul 13, 4:10pm: The "Neither" option indicates that outcome where neither Kalshi nor Polymarket will launch a conditional market before the date of expiration of this market (which is September 30, 2022).

Jul 13, 7:15pm: The "Neither" option also includes the case in which another real-money prediction market, that is neither Kalshi nor Polymarket, arises and launches a conditional prediction market before the expiration of this market and does so before any other existing real-money prediction market does so.

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@traders Should this be N/A? Resolved to something? Extended?

@EvanDaniel Looking at the "Jul 13, 4:10pm" annotation in the description, this should resolve "Neither".

I made a followup market:
Will Kalshi or Polymarket launch a conditional market in 2024?

@SebastianDeri Can this resolve yet? If not, should the close date be extended?

@horse yup agree. but the Q (to me) is whether participant/liquidity would be so low as to be useless as to make it non-functional or just smaller and still useful. also -- someone just needs to do it/try it already!
I expect that conditional markets would have lower participation than non-conditional markets due to their additional complexity and the chance for your money to do nothing. Maybe if there was collateral return for buying in mutually exclusive conditional markets? But that's further complexity.
I'm a bit confused by "Neither" here -- is this "Neither by the close date of Sept 30"?
@Austin Yes, sorry if that was unclear. Added a clarification in the market description.
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