Resolves to yes if >50% ownership of Manifold acquired by Kalshi or Polymarket or any of their subsidiaries before 1/1/2026
My friend is talking to some cofounders of Manifold and they seem to be going for it. Many people are coming to the Manifold first before the Polymarket to make the decisions and it is a way for keeping it in check. He said discussions are being had but it will take the time for signing.
The more I read https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating and https://manifold.markets/Joshua/good-pivot-bad-pivot-which-opinions the more I think the acquisition is likely to happen, especially given the recent growth Kalshi and Polymarket experienced will likely translate to a lot more cash to spend. Manifold is the perfect target given its unique user base. The leadership team's loss of Austin, who seemed to care the least about whether or not Manifold makes money, may result in the team bowing down to capitalism and end in a acquisition. Just my 2c
