Will Biden or Trump outperform their polling?

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Ṁ1368

resolved Aug 3

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45%

Biden

55%

Trump

Specifically national average (including third parties) vs national popular vote. This will resolve according to margin between the two, so if the polling margin is Biden + 3 and he wins by 2, it resolves to Trump. RCP or 538 average will be used.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Trump

#2024 US Election

#Joe Biden

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Trump outperformed his polling the last two times. Polling errors are notoriously unpredictable but seems silly for this to be under 50%.

@ShakedKoplewitz Seems silly for Biden to be at 50-50 in the main market without this being very pro Biden.

@riverwalk3 I think the expectation is that the polling would shift towards Biden, not that Biden will overperform polling on election day

@StopPunting The markets on whether Trump loses his popular vote lead for more than 4 weeks at a time seems to disagree.

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