Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?
Plus
40
Ṁ43782029
95%
Metaculus
87%
Polymarket
81%
Good Judgment Open
80%
Kalshi
79%
Manifold
41%
Insight Prediction
25%
PredictIt
18%
Fox News' America Predicts
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@MikhaFischler But then, it would eventually resolve YES, so the initial YES bets will turn out profitable anyway, right ?
@MikhaFischler It just depends on people's psychology. Some people like it to be the "right" probability rather than just the option that's most likely to cash out eventually
@Bayesian I mean, a platform could still exist and operate old questions while not opening new questions. So Manifold could in fact resolve no here, or any of these other options could resolve no while still existing.
Related questions
Related questions
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
73% chance
Which prediction markets will win?
At the end of 2024, will any prediction markets have a clear lead over the others?
Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?
25% chance
Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?
32% chance
Which one is the most accurate prediction market? (2024)
Will PredictIt still be operating markets through Dec 2024?
69% chance
Will investment firms be interested in prediction market platforms before the end of 2024?
78% chance
Which one is the most enjoyable prediction market? (2024)
Will prediction markets feature on the 80,000 Hours podcast by the end of 2024?
31% chance
Which one is the most enjoyable prediction market? (2025)