Will the Democratic candidate for President win Erie County, Pennsylvania?
Basic
4
Ṁ775Jan 1
1.9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I think this is the closest thing we have to a bellwether county in a bellwether state for the Presidential election. All in fairly close races, Trump won it in 2016, Toomey won it in 2016, Biden won it in 2020, Fetterman won it in 2022.
If somehow there is an exact tie, it will resolve 50/50.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Donald Trump win >20% of votes in Philadelphia County, PA?
98% chance
Will Pennsylvania be decisive in the 2024 Presidential Election?
1% chance
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Pennsylvania?
15% chance
Will Donald Trump win Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential election?
99% chance
Will the 2024 US Presidential candidate who wins Pennsylvania also win the election?
99% chance
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Pennsylvania?
99% chance
Will Erie County, Pennsylvania correctly pick the winner of the Presidential Election?
97% chance
Will the winner of the 2024 USA presidential election win Pennsylvania?
99% chance
2024 POTUS election: Will the candidate who wins Pennsylvania also win...
Will Democrats win more House seats in Pennsylvania than Republicans in 2024?
43% chance