I'm at 99%+ that this resolves YES. (Was hoping it might be able to resolve NO, but alas that is not possible.)

• There are 1699 of 1703 divisions reporting: https://vote.phila.gov/results/

• They are only missing Polling Place votes from these four divisions.

• These four divisions have a total of 2,894 Registered Voters.

• 431 of those registered voters have already voted by mail.

• This leaves 2,463 registered voters remaining who may have potentially voted at a Polling Place.

• County wide, after the first 1699 divisions, Trump has received 141,203 votes out of a total 703,470 votes. This corresponds to 20.07235561% currently.

• If 100% of the remaining 2,463 registered voters in the last four districts voted for Harris, this would bring Trump's vote share to: 141,203 / (703,470 + 2,463) = 20.002323166%.

• Non-Trump candidates would need to receive 2545 votes (with Trump receiving 0) from the last 4 districts to bring Trump's vote share down to 20%. This would not be possible without a 100% turnout plus 82 new voter registrations.

• Therefore, Trump definitely received >20% of the votes in Philadelphia County, PA.

95% in, trump at 20.55%

@MarkBowen I mean, it is definitely resolving YES but I'll hold off for one day just so everything is certain

Philadelphia is not the midwest

midwestern?

When prediction markets get big, these county-level markets will be the gold standard in election forecasting.