If Israel invades Rafah, will they have a reasonable plan for evacuating civilians from there?
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54
Ṁ4927
Jan 1
61%
chance

A plan is considered reasonable if:-

  • If it allocates a considerable amount of additional space for housing these civilians, in addition to the current evacuation zone. At least 2/3 of the evacuated area in Rafah.

  • The safety of the civilians is guaranteed to a reasonable level in that area. It is not an active fighting area (as evidenced by ISW reports) and buildings don't regularly get bombed there (less than one bombing a week).

  • Alternatively, if these civilians are guaranteed a safe refuge outside of Gaza, that also counts, as long as their passage is indeed guaranteed (subject only to security checks) and the other conditions apply. Note that this is not an endorsement of this or any other solution, I am merely curious to see if the Israeli government comes up with a real plan.

Resolves N/A if the war ends or at the end of 2024, whichever is sooner, if an invasion hasn't occured.

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Other than the tragic explosion from a nearby weapons stash which was said to have killed some evacuees, it sounds like the evacuation tent city has been respected.

@SusanneinFrance I am aware of one airstrike on the humanitarian zone that happened since the IDF started the evacuation of Rafah. But I agree that the safety condition seems to be satisfied.

bought Ṁ250 YES from 74% to 80%

@traders Hi Traders. Sorry for not being very unresponsive. I plan to review this shortly, it probably should be resolved. Please send any links or arguments that you would like to have considered in resolution. There seems to be some conflicting information online so this might be tricky

@Shump In which points does your information disagree?

In my recent experience, anti-Israel accounts on social media routinely make up claims about real attacks, stating that those took place in a "safe zone". But that is usually easy to refute.

bought Ṁ150 YES

The U.S. basically said “we don’t see any way for Israel to evacuate that many people from Rafah that quickly, we think it will take months” and then Israel evacuated a million people in a few weeks. So it seems to be going fine so far…

so far more than a million people evacuated safely, and more space has been allocated, minimal civilian casualties in the Rafah operation.
100K tents of 20 people has been delivered to the population.
and yet, some how the market is really low, how do you explain that?

bought Ṁ100 NO

Current plan seems to be “drop leaflets onto previously declared safe zones saying to go to increasingly small/open spaces”. Grim.

Any update on this?

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