If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
Plus
13
Ṁ9082026
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The resolution source is the Southwest Land Border Encounters series by the US border Patrol.
If Trump does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A.
I will use the number shown on the site upon release of the data for all of FY 2025. Note that it appears that this dataset does get updated retroactively. The earliest available data will be used (excluding projections)
Partner market for Biden:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)
84% chance
Will Trump declare a national emergency on immigration before February 2025?
63% chance
Will 2024 have more estimated illegal boarder crossings to the U.S. than in 2023?
57% chance
In 2024, will more or fewer Chinese nationals enter the US illegally through the Mexican border than in 2023?
Yes=more
72% chance
If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?
40% chance
Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?
40% chance
If Trump wins, will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50%?
81% chance
If Trump wins, will there be more sanctuary cities in the USA when the Midterm elections end?
29% chance
Will more than one million people be deported from the United States in 2025?
21% chance
If Trump is elected, will there be a government shutdown before the 2026 midterms?
38% chance