US Google Trends: Which of these keywords will surpass their 2023 peak in 2024?
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Plus
81
แน€32k
Dec 31
98.5%
Election Results
78%
Nintendo
63%
Manifold Markets
36%
Artificial General Intelligence
34%
Large Language Model
33%
Artemis
33%
Virtual Reality
31%
Ligma
28%
Government Shutdown
26%
Transformer
26%
China
16%
Fyre Festival
15%
Pause AI
10%
Effective Altruism
10%
Hamas
8%
COVID-19
8%
FTX
8%
Sam Altman
7%
Twitter
6%
make fetch happen

Options resolve as 'YES' if any of their completed 2024 data points surpasses their 2023 peak.


Note: Any option that has already surpassed its 2023 peak in 2024 before being proposed will be N/A'd.

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bought แน€50 Ligma NO

@Simon74fe would you resolve hurricane and Lebanon? ๐Ÿ™

@HenriThunberg Thanks, has been resolved

@mods Can you please N/A the keyword 'Kamala Harris'?
Context: It was added today and has surpassed it's 2023 peak already before being added, which is against the market rules

done

Thanks @jskf

bought แน€10 Large Language Model NO

@Simon74fe If an option has an associated Google Trends topic, are you resolving based off treating the exact term with the same capitalization as a "search term" or using the topic, if the words are the same but capitalization differs? It makes a difference.

I will always use the search term

bought แน€500 Answer #aaeba6543817 YES

@Simon74fe Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy seem to both resolve YES. :)

Thanks!

bought แน€150 Answer #bd72b86f6174 YES
bought แน€30 Manifold Markets NO

1) Reinforcement learning (Feb 25-Mar 2), 2) trying with this again: diversity, equity, and inclusion (Feb 4-10), 3) Fusion power (Apr 21-27), 4) Llama (Apr 21-27), 5) Climate change (Apr 21-27)

We'll see how many are just plain different this time @Simon74fe ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ

@HenriThunberg Thanks! I could resolve all but DEI. Let's try DEI again next time ๐Ÿ™‚

@HenriThunberg What's up with climate change btw? I feel like I'm out of the loop here

@Simon74fe I honestly have no idea. Seems out of proportion enough to be a bug rather than actual events?

April seems noted for warmest April ever, but that happens all the time doesn't it?

bought แน€30 Virtual Reality NO

@HenriThunberg Just checked DEI again, finally I could resolve it YES

bought แน€50 Answer #ef8b84b827a6 YES

1) Nvidia, 2) Path of Totality, 3) Leap year, 4) Biological weapons, 5) Effective Accelerationism, can all resolve to YES I think :))
@Simon74fe

@HenriThunberg Thanks!! Resolved the first three, but I can't yet see the peak for biological weapons and effective accelerationism on my side

@Simon74fe Hmmkay, I thought I had the exact same settings as you?
Biological weapons:

Effective Accelerationism

@HenriThunberg

Hmm, I also can't see a difference in the settings

bought แน€100 Answer #565a7d8c8024 YES

1) Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion , 2) Taylor Swift, and 3) Neuralink can all resolve to YES I think.
@Simon74fe

@HenriThunberg Thanks! On my side "Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion" only reached the same peak as in 2023, didn't surpass it yet.
I resolved the other two.

@Simon74fe thank you!

Hmm, are we seeing the same thing? To me, the peak looks clearly caused by Jan 5th 2024 mainly. If you need the full week view to be exclusively in 2024 (as is not the case for Dec 31 2023 -Jan 6 2024), then I think that should be clarified somewhere :)

@HenriThunberg That's what I'm seeing

sold แน€544 Answer #565a7d8c8024 YES

@Simon74fe Cool, the difference was "search term" vs "topic". Good to know!

@jBosc Earl Grey was N/A'd because this would have been betting on the past. Earl Grey tea was added on February 7th; however it had already surpassed its 2023 peak in January 2024

@Simon74fe ah makes sense

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