Formula 1 2024 - Will Sergio Perez be dropped or replaced mid-season? (Includes being replaced for any reason)
➕
Plus
40
Ṁ16k
Dec 9
14%
chance

Things have been going rather badly for Red Bull’s second driver.

He’s regularly more than half a second off Max Verstappen’s pace in qualifying and is sometimes being lapped in the races. While his teammate is leading the championship by a huge margin, Perez is languishing in sixth with less than half of Verstappen’s points tally.

Autosport have reported that the performance clause in his contract can kick in if he is over 100 points off Verstappen at key points in the season. He’s already further off than that and it seems impossible to think that he might outscore Verstappen and close the gap!

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/red-bull-says-perez-form-unsustainable-with-f1-contract-clause-set-to-kick-in/10632975/

Will Red Bull replace Perez during the 2024 season?

This will resolve to YES if Red Bull put another driver in the second Red Bull for any qualifying or race session this year (including sprint races) for any reason.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Or, “will Sergio Perez miss a race for Red Bull for any reason in 2024”

I’ve added “includes being replaced for any reason” in the title. Just missing a race isn’t enough - if Red Bull only enter one car and don’t replace Perez that wouldn’t be enough to resolve to YES.

if Red Bull put another driver in the second Red Bull for any qualifying or race session this year (including sprint races) for any reason.

I mean as written this would resolve YES if Perez can’t race due to injury and Red Bull has a replacement driver in the second car while he is hurt. I don’t think that is the intention based on the question title.

It would be good to clarify before he gets hurt @SimonGrayson

Jesus, can you imagine the scenes if Perez took a week off with a cold and Red Bull got a 1-2 finish with Lawson in the second seat.

The market would resolve to YES if he's replaced for any reason including injury.

That way it's completely factual and objective - I was thinking about a situation like the the end of Kimi Raikkonen's last season with Lotus where he was supposedly "injured" but most people suspected that he'd either walked away or Lotus couldn't afford to pay him!

Can you edit the title to read “dropped or hurt” or something then?

I read it in total as "This will resolve to YES if Red Bull put another driver in the second Red Bull for any qualifying or race session this year (including sprint races) for any reason. WITH THE STIPULATION IN THE QUESTION OF "Mid-season", which would resolve this NO if Perez races the next race August 23rd 2024 which marks the end of "Mid-Season, summer break"

The description clearly states “during the 2024 season”.

There is no mention of the summer break, that’s not what the question is about.

Oh I understand, I was just stating that it indeed could be seen as a bit confusing initially with quick reading and quick interpretation. I obviously know your markets very well, so I knew your intention behind the question.

Where I could see someone else arguing is in this way:
Mid-season could be literal in the sense that F1 has a mid season break.

Mid-season could also mean as you stated "during the 2024 season" (Which this is the correct interpretation)

bought Ṁ225 YES

Buying more YES on the off-chance they see sense. Seems an insane decision.

Despite another dire race, it looks like Red Bull aren't replacing Perez just yet:

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/perez-to-remain-with-red-bull-after-crunch-talks/10640390/

I wonder if they'll change their mind if the WCC gets a bit closer?

bought Ṁ200 YES

Surely today’s qualifying crash can’t help Perez keep his seat…

Related market:

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules