Taylor Swift's Eras Tour has been going since March. It's expected to be one of the biggest concert tours of all time - with every chance that it get the number one spot.
There is due to be a cinematic release of the tour in October 2023. As far as I can tell, no similar release has ever broken $100 million (the highest I've been able to find is $99 million for Justin Bieber in 2011), but the hype around this Taylor Swift releasae is enormous with news of pre-release sales being compared to Star Wars and Spiderman rather than other musical releases!
Will this release gross over $500 million at cinemas?
I'm planning to use this page at Box Office Mojo as the source (or the relevant BOM page if it doesn't stay at this URL post-release). If the worldwide total hits $500 million (unless there's some sort of obvious glitch on the site), this will resolve to YES. If we reach the end of the 2024 and it hasn't hit that number, the market will resolve to NO.
Update 13th October: Manifold have added a new market type since I created this market back in early September. I think this new type might work quite well for these box office questions!
Several factors should be considered, such as limited weekend showtimes and an opening slightly below expectations. However, given Taylor Swift's success and influence and the movie earning $123.5 million globally on the opening weekend, it is likely to surpass $500 million worldwide by the end of 2024, supported by statistical analysis. The percentage of opening sales vs. total sales varies based on factors like release saturation, time of year, and film quality. The Top 10 movies with opening in October earned on average 8.3 times (median: 8.3 as well) of the domestic opening in total gross sales. Applying this average predicts worldwide gross sales of about $767 million. Considering the outstanding reviews and the short-notice and minimal advertising before the release, limiting the awareness among fans on the first weekend, it is likely that the Taylor Swift movie will be able to achieve at least $500 million total sales, if not more.
A big expected opening weekend has just got a boost from additional Thursday screenings!
https://variety.com/2023/film/news/taylor-swift-eras-concert-movie-release-date-change-1235752734/
Obviously this is going to be hugely frontloaded, but it’s looking like a pretty big success so far!
Barbie took only 3 weeks to reach 500m domestically. Projections for the tour have similar huge blockbuster numbers for the opening weekend… at the very least it will be easier and cheaper getting tickets to see Swift in the movies than live from Ticketmaster