Batteries are the major cost in EV prices.
However, the rate of improvement of battery costs over the last 11 years is a 90% improvement. If you take that 90% improvement from $50/kWh in 2025 over 11 years to 2036, it goes something like this:
2025: $50/kWh
2027: $38/kWh
2030: $25/kWh
2033: $12/kWh
2036: $5/kWh
In the end, if this pace of innovation in battery costs being reduced happens, the 200-mile range EV in 2030 would most likely have an around 40 kWh battery pack, be very lightweight, and get about 5 miles per kWh. That pack would cost around $1,000.
Just for fun, if you take 2036 to 2047, and if you use another 90% reduction, you get a cost per kWh in 2047 of around $0.50 or 50 cents. That makes a 200-mile range EV with a 40 kWh battery pack have a pack cost of $20. Seems absolutely insane when you think of it today.
This market outcome resolves true if the battery pack of 200-mile range EVs cost 1000 USD or less by Jan 1, 2030.
1,000
3.00Over 200 km range EV that sells for 7500$
https://youtu.be/mCXTI-tvxWI?si=XsasyFpfyT5hyYyT
This is insane. I'm wondering what the odds are that we'll get a $1k EV by 2030
@figo mmm.. i don't know.. which one would be more fair to reflect the purpose of this market? I think I'll create a poll asking this question and resolve according to the poll outcome.
@SimoneRomeo yes it was very cheap, except if the market shifts to 400mile range as the standard in which case $1000 may be hard to sustain. I still believe there will be a market for below 10k cars (hello Seagull), in which case $1k/200miles should remain a good trade-off.
Gosh, just made this market two months ago and we are already almost 1 year ahead of schedule
https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/26/catl-byd-to-slash-battery-prices-by-50-in-2024-boom-evs-win/
@ElliotDavies Not sure right now. Do you have suggestions? Is there anything you are concerned about specifically?
@SimoneRomeo I'm just worried: 1) There won't be consensus (2) This market isn't super clear if it's Cell Kw/h vs finished battery cell per Kw/h