This market aims to bet on objective measures for a "better world"
You are invited to bet on the options above according to what will be true GLOBALLY in 2028.
See below the objective measures:
Life expectancy: 73.16 years
Infant mortality: 26.053 deaths per 1,000 live births
GDP per capita (this will be measured adjusted for inflation): $13,920
CO2 emissions: 37.4 Gt
Number of deaths from conflicts: 238,000
In order to make the market more accurate, and particularly if someone recommends this in the comments, I may:
Slightly change the names of the options to make them reflect the sources better
Change the sources in case the contents or figures turn out to be wrong or misleading (it shouldn't happen, but you are encouraged to check them ๐)
Resolve N/A the options that other users added if they don't meet the criteria below
You are encouraged to add your own options, as long as they follow the following criteria:
They have to include a source with a measurable figure (for example, you cannot say "we will be happier" unless you define a way to measure global happiness)
The source has refer to global figures (for example, you cannot say "there will be less suicides" and cite the number of suicides in the USA)
The figure cited has to be from 2023
You can add the option directly and post the source in the comments so I can add it to the description
Not enough mana to add these, but:
% of the world population living in democracies (as measured e.g. by The Economist Democracy Index);
% of the world population living in countries without a pressure to vote for one of the two major parties on pain of "wasting the vote", and instead with an assurance that their vote counts the same if they choose other parties (i.e. proportional representation);
% of the world population living in countries where one cannot get "stuck" with an incompetent, corrupt or politically unsuitable Head of Government, and instead with the possibility to replace them by a simple majority vote in the legislature (i.e. parliamentary government)
Hm, I'll have to do that piecemeal. I'm not sure what the best source is for just listing the population of each country in the world in any given year - sources often use the latest available figure, which is often not consistent with each other. One page I think of is populationpyramid.net.
I think it is very likely that the Economist Democracy Index will still be around in 2029, that's the source for whether a country is a democracy โ either full or flawed. If the definitions change, we'll try to apply the new ones as much as we can (for example, if the scores remain the same but the names change, we'll use a score of 6.00 as the minimum for democracies). If the Index is no more, Freedom House will be used as a fallback.
For proportional representation, a country counts if Freedom House lists it as an "electoral democracy" (a different, easier criterion than The Economist's) AND Wikipedia says it uses PR (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation#List_of_countries_using_proportional_representation). To make things simple, let's say it doesn't matter how proportional the system is - MMM can be kinda bad if there are not a lot of seats in the PR tier, for example, but we won't get into those details.
As for parliamentary systems, what counts are countries that are democracies according to The Economist AND Wikipedia says are parliamentary. The thing that we're going for, which Wikipedia will represent faithfully, is:
the legislature is democratically elected;
it elects the Head of Government;
it can dismiss it at any time for reasons of political convenience.
None of the following things matter for this subquestion:
whether the Head of Government is also Head of State;
whether dismissing a Head of Government can only be done in the same process as electing a new one (constructive motion of no confidence);
whether the Head of Government can get the legislature dissolved.
I'm gonna set up a spreadsheet with the data on that at some point in the next week.
Is your measure of "less polluted" CO2 emissions? that seems like both a limited (there are other kinds of pollution; no CO2 but a bunch of mercury in the water would not be good!) and a strange (if everyone died and all the factories went silent because CO2 choked us all, emissions would go to ~0) metric, to me.
