@PoliticalEconomyPK I have edited this answer to fix an obvious typo. It's supposed to be GTA 6 not GTA 5

@PoliticalEconomyPK

@Purist

@RatUziCat

@PoliticalEconomyPK this doesn't necessarily limit to past children, future children will also count

What happens if King Charles somehow dies during the year, but is still alive at the end?

@EloideReynal i wont be resolving until its absolutely clear that he's dead

@EloideReynal he isn't Jon Snow

@JussiVilleHeiskanen 😂😂

What are you going to decide on the "o6 variant" question, given that the o series models will no longer be released with that name?

@PoliticalEconomyPK Currently trading at 5% while “putin assassinated” trades at 7%

@PoliticalEconomyPK How are we dealing with recent squirrely claims that Elon is not a govt employee but an advisor?

@PoliticalEconomyPK what evidence do you need. Wikipedia thinks it is a regular occurrence, but the market on the issue holds to a silly evidentiary standard...

@JussiVilleHeiskanen is it ok now?

@PoliticalEconomyPK you tell me

@JussiVilleHeiskanen i have edited the answer to make it more precise "Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives" i think it makes it more concrete now

@PoliticalEconomyPK certainly easier to resolve. It is hard to fit resolution criteria in just so many characters

@PoliticalEconomyPK personally I would have been satisfied with resolution criteria given as a comment

Please keep throwing NO bets into Humanity's Last Exam, please.

To me, this seems like a given. In 2 months, the scores on the exam went from 3% to 26%. That answer is likely to resolve before the end of March.

@SteveSokolowski https://manifold.markets/copiumarc/will-there-be-a-score-of-80-or-high?play=true

Limit at 20 for you

@copiumarc Already took that one out.

@copiumarc I added a stronger version of this one if you want throw more into that question.

I'm not betting on the 90% question because I think there are a number of questions that have human errors resulting in no correct answer, which the model might be so intelligent that it finds a second answer to, or which are ambiguous.

seems possible

@LiamZ Now it's your turn to be pedanted on. 😉

Would a signal or transmission of a technological blueprint count? Or does the technology need to corporeally and physically exist?

@Quroe thanks I actually did think of that but felt it was too long to try to get in there. Let’s say it has to be a physical object. If another civ is transmitting in the past and the signal is reaching us now it’d count for the detection of life elsewhere question but not this one.

@SteveSokolowski the US government already acknowledges the existence of dolphins, chimpanzees, etc. so this is trivially YES.

@LiamZ I did think about that, but they have to aknowledge that they are intelligent.

@Quroe, the DOD has been using dolphins’ intelligence to find things on our coasts:

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3785968/marine-mammal-program-contributes-to-national-security/

I would say them continuing to do that into 2025 counts. But if not, it's going to turn into seriously splitting hairs and looking for ultra-specific wording from random officials which isn't a particularly interesting market.

Honestly this was likely supposed to be “extra-terrestrial intelligence” but that is totally a different thing from “non-human intelligence on earth” by definition.

Edit: I put mana down to give an option about extra-terrestrial intelligence rather than terrestrial non-human intelligence (which would also include AGI if reached based on wording and will confuse people if that doesn't count).

@LiamZ I guess I'm personally hung up on if they specifically use the word "intelligent" or similar. That being said, I have no personal stake in this market yet and am just being pedantic for the sake of being pedantic.

@Quroe that’s what I mean by hunting for specific wording. Dolphins have intelligence. Dolphins are non-human. The US government has been funding studies on dolphin intelligence, communication, and training them for decades. Dolphins are on Earth.

If the market is just about the exact wording of every statement made by people in these programs until the end of the year, that is not very interesting. If it's not counting all the non-human intelligence on Earth right now then it should say something besides “non-human intelligence on Earth.”

@LiamZ are they really "on or close to human level" though? idk much about dolphins but to me that would entail some level of language and abstract reasoning

@copiumarc they do have a bit of those but where did you get the “on or close to human level” quote?

I mean, if we want to distill language and abstract reasoning down to bare basics, would this adorable birb count as intelligent?

https://youtube.com/shorts/_AmBMMv88rI?si=iz2EeUsvmkNfMlN_

And just to prove that the bird video isn't a one-off (and also because I want to share another one): https://youtube.com/shorts/3oIkzKje_aw?si=d0lm271AAdCCL-Ut

@LiamZ oh my brain extrapolated the quote LOL

in its current wording tbh a lot of animals resolve this yes

@copiumarc ok haha I reread it and the comments a few times and couldn't figure out what I was missing. Yeah honestly a phrase like that could have helped. It should probably N/A as written tbh.

@PoliticalEconomyPK