This: https://manifold.markets/RZacDQ/5-or-more-confirmed-violent-tornado

@Gameknight Can you clarify: Does this require Los Ratones to compete in Worlds, or just their roster to physically attend?

@RedzoneITG This requires LR to compete in Worlds. "To simply physically attend the event" is neither the original intent nor the common interpretation of the phrase.

@SteveSokolowski resolve no

@PoliticalEconomyPK I have edited this answer to fix an obvious typo. It's supposed to be GTA 6 not GTA 5

@PoliticalEconomyPK

@Purist

@RatUziCat

@PoliticalEconomyPK this doesn't necessarily limit to past children, future children will also count

What happens if King Charles somehow dies during the year, but is still alive at the end?

@EloideReynal i wont be resolving until its absolutely clear that he's dead

@EloideReynal he isn't Jon Snow

@JussiVilleHeiskanen 😂😂

What are you going to decide on the "o6 variant" question, given that the o series models will no longer be released with that name?

@PoliticalEconomyPK Currently trading at 5% while “putin assassinated” trades at 7%

@PoliticalEconomyPK How are we dealing with recent squirrely claims that Elon is not a govt employee but an advisor?

@PoliticalEconomyPK what evidence do you need. Wikipedia thinks it is a regular occurrence, but the market on the issue holds to a silly evidentiary standard...

@JussiVilleHeiskanen is it ok now?

@PoliticalEconomyPK you tell me

@JussiVilleHeiskanen i have edited the answer to make it more precise "Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives" i think it makes it more concrete now

@PoliticalEconomyPK certainly easier to resolve. It is hard to fit resolution criteria in just so many characters

@PoliticalEconomyPK personally I would have been satisfied with resolution criteria given as a comment

Please keep throwing NO bets into Humanity's Last Exam, please.

To me, this seems like a given. In 2 months, the scores on the exam went from 3% to 26%. That answer is likely to resolve before the end of March.

@SteveSokolowski https://manifold.markets/copiumarc/will-there-be-a-score-of-80-or-high?play=true

Limit at 20 for you

@copiumarc Already took that one out.

@copiumarc I added a stronger version of this one if you want throw more into that question.

I'm not betting on the 90% question because I think there are a number of questions that have human errors resulting in no correct answer, which the model might be so intelligent that it finds a second answer to, or which are ambiguous.

seems possible