Will More Than 420,000 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season?
RESOLUTION
Resolves YES if 420,001+ acres are burned in 2024.
Resolves NO if 420,000- acres are burned in 2024.
INFORMATION
Data may not be available for up to 1-2 weeks after the end of year.
Source Used: CALFIRE 2024
Prior 10 Years: (Average per year: 1,355,802)
2023: 324,917
2022: 331,360
2021: 2,569,386
2020: 4,304,379
2019: 277,285
2018: 1,975,086
2017: 1,599,640
2016: 669,534
2015: 880,899 (estimated)
2014: 625,540 (estimated)
Clarifications & Notes:
01/06/2024 ; None at this time.
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
1,000
1.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ114 | |
| 2 | Ṁ93 | |
| 3 | Ṁ82 | |
| 4 | Ṁ63 | |
| 5 | Ṁ30 |
The number picked here for this market feels very much on the borderline. If California has a relatively gentle fire season as it has in previous years, this is likely to be “no”. But on the other hand, we’re already over halfway there just as of July, and the peak of the season tends to be closer to August/September.
I’m adding a small tracking bet to “yes” here but I’m not confident in it.
