I wonder when or if Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a serious, substantial, and prolonged public falling out. This means they engage in significant negative exchanges lasting over a couple of weeks, involving multiple substantial criticisms of each other on major issues—not just minor disagreements or single-issue disputes. Light-hearted remarks, minor critiques, or respectful criticism of some decisions while still maintaining their relationship don’t count. It has to be somewhat personal.

I won’t be betting on this market.