The first 24 hours will act as a buffer to solidify the resolution criteria so please post any questions you have in the comments.
@Marnix no it did not happen yet since we would have to compare average monthly active users in 2023 with 2024. the earliest we can resolve this for Threads would be 2025
@Soli Hmmm I am a bit confused by this clarification. I would think that you would compare the numbers from July 2023 to the numbers in July 2024, and if the MAU is less than half then Threads would resolve yes. Is that not how it works? What would the exact formula be?
@Joshua I was hoping the word average would make it clear. I am not interested in temporary dips. Your proposed formula is not average but rather “Which of the following platforms will report any month with 50% less active monthly users YoY” but this is not the question
@Joshua I am interested in the average which can be calculated by taking # of active monthly users divided by number of months (12 in most cases and less for Threads)
@Soli Right, but Threads has only existed since July. Exact numbers are hard to find, but let's assume it's 100 Million in July and 25 Million every month after that.
So... the average MAU for Threads would be (100 +25*5)/6 = 37.5 million for 2023? And then in 2024 it would need to have an average MAU of 37.5/2 = 18.75 million or less?