💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]
97
3.2kṀ7937
2030
98%
Obsidian (notetaking)
98%
Discord
97%
Beeminder
94%
AnkiWeb
94%
rdrama.net
94%
Substack
92%
Notion
92%
Reddit
92%
Manifold.markets
91%
Pornhub
89%
Uber
87%
4chan.org
86%
Hacker News (news.ycombinator.com)
85%
Tumblr
83%
Hinge
81%
Roam Research
80%
Logseq
80%
Dustloop
80%
SufficientVelocity forum
76%
Genius (Rap Genius)

Rules (work in progress)

  • If the domain is still there but only hosting a simple page instead of the original product/service, I will not count that as working

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If the website is still there but has significantly reworked their product and gone through multiple owners, like Yahoo or MySpace, does it resolve yes?

bought Ṁ5 NO

first thought: NO, could easily run out of money

second thought: YES, if the site is dead who cares about losing the bet

third thought: NO, there's a non-trivial chance that the domain could change (e.g. .markets gTLD changes ToS, ramps up prices, ceases to exist, etc.)

oh and there's also the chance that The Pivot changes the name...

By Lindy's law Beeminder will be around, in expectation, till 2036-12-11 or 2040-12-24, depending on what we count as Beeminder's creation date.

@dreev yay!

bought Ṁ20 YES

cool question chris

bought Ṁ10 YES

What is dead may never die

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