Full Question: “Will the average global temperature in 2024 be colder than in 2023?”
The question resolves to “Yes” if the average global temperature for the year 2024, as reported by NASA (gistemp), is lower than the average global temperature for 2023.
The question resolves to “No” if the average global temperature for 2024 is equal to or higher than that of 2023.
The market closes on December 31, 2024, and resolves when the annual global temperature data for 2024 is publicly available.
1,000
3.00duplicate but just closed (after 38k trading): https://manifold.markets/SteveRabin/will-the-average-global-temperature
2023 on track to be anomalously warm, betting on mean reversion.
https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-september-2023-unprecedented-temperature-anomalies