Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024?
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Ṁ69k
Dec 31
11%
chance

The screenshot above is from OpenAI’s page announcing their crazy new AI video model. They say, “If we deploy the model in an OpenAI product,” which makes me wonder if they will deploy it and, if yes, when.

The market resolves YES if the model becomes available to any users, whether paid or free, but won’t count if it’s invite-only.

/Soli/will-openais-ai-video-model-sora-be-0162150a561e

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@traders i just upgraded this related market which might interest some of you: /Soli/will-openais-ai-video-model-sora-be-0162150a561e

bought Ṁ50 YES

I think yes, but just about. Maybe the week before Christmas.

@MelissaJ agreeeee

bought Ṁ5 YES
bought Ṁ10 NO from 40% to 39%
boughtṀ250NO

@TimothyJohnson5c16 wanna do a bigger order at 34%?

bought Ṁ25 YES

@zQ4Z82W what about you? 😅

@Bayesian I probably have a bit too much of my net worth sunk into this already, sorry.

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 25% order

500M limit order @ 25%

reposted

I think OpenAI is waiting for US election to be over before releasing Sora to the public. The election will be over in November so I expect them to release the model early December.

Why would they be waiting for this specific event?

maybe they are worried that sora will be used to create fake videos in order to manipulate the elections or spread false information

Plausible except 1. The videos they've demoed are not THAT good 2. They will have a ton of content filtering like other video generators

agree that the quality of the videos produced by sora are not that great but maybe openai is being extra careful to avoid a second cambridge analytica kind scandal. i think they have very little to win if they release before elections are over and a small to medium risk of getting into a scandal.

opened a Ṁ25,000 NO at 55% order

More NO liquidity!

i would take some of it but 55% is too high

bought Ṁ150 YES

Alr. Fair price to me is 40% so i still dont wanna go too much lower than that

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 60% order

I put some more limit orders up at 60%.

too high for me

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 64% order

placed some NO limit orders you all can buy into

bought Ṁ500 YES

A chinease company released a sora competitor last week. I think this significantly increases the % that we get access to sora this year.

bought Ṁ30 YES
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