Will India go to war by 2025?
➕
Plus
20
Ṁ1558
Jan 1
8%
chance

Resolves YES if India is directly involved in a military conflict in which there are over 1,000 total casualties. Resolves NO otherwise on 1/1/2025.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
predictedNO

Do all those weird melee bouts they're having with China count? If you're using the typical military definition of casualty (i.e. including non-combat-effective wounded) I would think they'd probably make the grade.

predictedNO

@AndrewHartman They certainly count as military combat but have not been anywhere close to a war definition of 1,000 casualties.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2021_China–India_skirmishes

@SpeaksForTrees I was under the impression they were still skirmishing, tbh. I'll see if I can find some sources to corroborate that impression.

predictedNO

@AndrewHartman No, as far as I know the most recent clash was December 2022. In fact, last month it was reported that the pair held productive border talks reaffirming peace.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-india-hold-military-chief-level-talks-border-issues-2023-10-12/

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules