Will >= 34.5% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in the September 2024 poll? | Manifold

Will >= 34.5% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in the September 2024 poll?

Plus

18

Ṁ8562

resolved Oct 1

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Every month, Manifold users are invited to vote on polls that ask whether humans have achieved weak AGI. In the polls, the definition of "artificial general intelligence" is not provided except to state that manipulation of the physical world is not required for "weak" AGI. The polls open on the 23rd of each month.

Currently, approximately one third of Manifold respondents believe that weak AGI has been achieved.

For the September 2024 poll, will the trendline continue, with 34.5% or more of Manifold users (excluding "no opinion") agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved?

RELATED:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

#Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

The result of the poll is 36.4%, exceeding the August result of 31.8% and showing an acceleration even beyond the linear trendline. The resolution of this market is YES.

Related questions

Will a majority of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in one of the 2024 monthly polls?

+4% 1d25% chance

Will we get AGI before 2028?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

Will Manifold users declare that weak AGI has been achieved during or before February 2025?

+10% 1d39% chance

Will we get AGI before 2029?

+5% 1d57% chance

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Related questions

Will a majority of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in one of the 2024 monthly polls?

Will Manifold users declare that weak AGI has been achieved during or before February 2025?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules