Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Fed cuts Interest rates at least fifty basis points
Basic
10
Ṁ238Jan 15
80%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A time-sensitive copy of this market:
This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.
This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias's at the same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.
Matt predicts 90% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
Get
1,000
and1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis point
67% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Fed cuts interest rates at least 75 basis points
64% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points
77% chance
Will the Fed cut rates by more than 25bps in December?
21% chance
By how much will the Fed cut interest rates in 2024?
Will the Fed cut rates by more than 25bps in November?
9% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least 75 basis points
98% chance
How many times will the Fed lower interest rates in 2024?
Interest rate cuts: total basis points of cuts in 2024
Will FED cut rates at their December 2024 meeting?
86% chance