1,000
3.00@fabienneparker Election Over , only 1 time lowered in September (3rd Quarter)
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September 18, 2024
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
@DistinctlySkeptical "in 2024"
The answers are badly chosen/worded which means someone will have to decide how to resolve this. Resolving based only on cuts prior to the election doesn't seem reasonable to me given the title.
@fabienneparker Only 1 will have happenned by election. 2 if you include a November cut, If it happens.
No way for 3 cuts before election and not possible for "about one each quarter until the election"
Essentially all options should resolve no on this particular market.
@DistinctlySkeptical Why is an emergency rate cut between now and the election impossible? That seems like a fine argument to bet down that option, but not to resolve it now.
The Fed first cut rates in September, so there is no way it can resolve to “Three, about one each quarter” unless you reaaaaly stretch the definition of what a quarter is. September is not Q2. Maybe you can clarify if three cuts overall qualify in the spirit of the question, even if they are in Sept, Nov, and Dec.
@fabienneparker how will this resolve if it's e.g. three cuts, but all of them are in the last two quarters?
@Pepe Wondering why you think that.
Unemployment is still at 3.7%, producer prices just came in hot, https://apnews.com/article/inflation-wholesale-prices-consumer-federal-reserve-rates-68045213d11f1b2d5df41e0cdebe4955, and Core CPI is still close to 4%, https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/cpi-inflation-data-january-report-today.
Do you think delaying the cuts will cause them to accelerate their pace?