Fed Announces Another 25 Basis Point Interest Rate Cut

Powell says the Fed doesn’t need to be ‘in a hurry’ to reduce interest rates

Published Thu, Nov 14 20243:00 PM EST

CNBC

@chrisjbillington @EvanDaniel

I see you both weighed in on this thread already, but it doesn't look like anyone has said anything about how to specifically rule on these various options.

1. I'm going to resolve "One, third quarter" to No. There have been two cuts in 2024. Even though there was one in the third quarter, there have been two cuts in 2024 so far, so this answer cannot resolve Yes.

2. I am not going to resolve the answer "Two, early Summer and early Fall" yet. There have been exactly two rate cuts so far, but there could be more before the end of the year. If we do end the year with exactly two rate cuts then this answer could resolve Yes, because the number matches but I suspect at least one user would protest because the timing was "late Summer and mid-Fall", so there would be a legitimate ambiguity.

3. I am not going to resolve the answer "Three, about one each quarter until the election", because there is still a chance we end the year with exactly three rate cuts. If we do end the year with exactly three rate cuts, this answer could resolve Yes because the number matches, but I suspect at least one user would protest due to the mismatch in timing, so there would be a legitimate ambiguity.

Long story short: Looks like two of these are basically guaranteed to resolve No, and trade at your own risk on anything else.

Anyone dying to have trading reopen?

@Eliza

There are many other markets that allow trading on this topic. This particular market had the specifics of detail to the multiple option answer. This is something much talked about during the Crypto/Stock Market Markets in Nov/Dec 2023 as a way to add substance to questions. I traded purely based on the words used and the specifics of what those words mean.
1. "1, Third quarter" = One Cut and only during the third quarter

2. "Two, early Summer and early Fall" = Exactly Two Cuts, 1 During Early Summer(June/July 2024) and 1 During Early Fall (Sept/Oct 2024)

3. "Three, about one each quarter until the election" = Exactly Three Cuts, All 3 In Different Quarters Or Close to But Still During Either Q1, Q2, Q3, Leading Up Until The Election (Nov 5th 2024)
   
   So All 3 Options Resolve NO

@mods

@SirSalty

@DistinctlySkeptical I'll resolve the Two one to No but I'm not confident enough to do anything about the Three one. It seems like we should wait until the end of the year to resolve the Three one to Yes, but if it can be a No that could happen sooner.

The moderation guidelines that would apply here are probably this section:

When is okay to resolve a market of another creator?

If the close date has been reached, and the resolution is ambiguous

1. If appropriate, just reopen the market. If the creator is active then ask if you can reopen it/suggest they do so.

2. If resolution criteria have been “met”, but it’s unclear how to interpret them:

• Try to get the creator to resolve the market. They usually do respond to pings after a while even if seemingly inactive. Waiting for a couple of months is fine if the alternative is to N/A thanks to the loan system.

• 3 out of 3 mods unanimously agree that it’s skewed far enough towards one interpretation to resolve it that way. This process should happen ~1 week after close if the creator is inactive.

• Failing the above two, resolve N/A.

@Eliza As a former mod , I know how it works ;-P

#3 "Three, about one each quarter until the election'

• While there was 3 cuts, they happened End of Q3, Beginning of Q4, and End Q4.

• No Cuts During Q1 or Q2.

• 2 cuts were Prior to election, 1 cut was over a month past election.

@fabienneparker Election Over , only 1 time lowered in September (3rd Quarter)

---

Press Release

 PDF

September 18, 2024

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

@DistinctlySkeptical "in 2024"

The answers are badly chosen/worded which means someone will have to decide how to resolve this. Resolving based only on cuts prior to the election doesn't seem reasonable to me given the title.

@fabienneparker @mods

@mods User has been gone 3+ months.

@fabienneparker Only 1 will have happenned by election. 2 if you include a November cut, If it happens.

No way for 3 cuts before election and not possible for "about one each quarter until the election"

Essentially all options should resolve no on this particular market.

@mods

@DistinctlySkeptical please answer me on discord

@DistinctlySkeptical Why is an emergency rate cut between now and the election impossible? That seems like a fine argument to bet down that option, but not to resolve it now.

@EvanDaniel Market Sentiment, while mostly BS like the Fear & Greed Index, at this point in the year you certainly are not going to purposely upset the markets by raising or lowering or changing anything unless its a true emergency. However we are now past the time for all options so they can resolve.

The Fed first cut rates in September, so there is no way it can resolve to “Three, about one each quarter” unless you reaaaaly stretch the definition of what a quarter is. September is not Q2. Maybe you can clarify if three cuts overall qualify in the spirit of the question, even if they are in Sept, Nov, and Dec.

@Parker

@fabienneparker how will this resolve if it's e.g. three cuts, but all of them are in the last two quarters?

None?

The most likely outcome right now is Four

@Pepe Wondering why you think that.

Unemployment is still at 3.7%, producer prices just came in hot, https://apnews.com/article/inflation-wholesale-prices-consumer-federal-reserve-rates-68045213d11f1b2d5df41e0cdebe4955, and Core CPI is still close to 4%, https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/cpi-inflation-data-january-report-today.

Do you think delaying the cuts will cause them to accelerate their pace?