Will the Fed make an emergency unscheduled rate hike or cut in 2024?
Basic
57
Ṁ3235
Dec 31
3%
chance

Resolves YES if in 2024, the Fed changes the fed funds rate outside of one of their scheduled meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

See the red highlighted actions in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions#Historical_actions for historical examples - the most recent was an emergency rate cut at the beginning of the Covid pandemic.

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bought Ṁ25 YES

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html "Traders now see a roughly 60% chance of an emergency quarter-point cut within one week." !

Treasuries Surge as Traders Bet on Emergency Fed Rate Cut
(Bloomberg) -- Bond traders are piling into bets that the US economy is on the verge of deteriorating so quickly that the Federal Reserve will need to start easing monetary policy aggressively — potentially before their next scheduled meeting — to head off a recession.Most Read from BloombergSinger Akon’s Multibillion-Dollar Futuristic City in Africa Gets Final NoticeWhat a Beautiful Bus Stop Can DoValencia Follows Barcelona in Crackdown on Short-Term RentalsA Vast Wetland Park Seeks to Slake a

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