Will Tamay Besiroglu win his Deep Learning vs Program Synthesis bet with Mike Knoop?
➕
Plus
12
Ṁ1885
2028
88%
chance

Context: This market is based on a $10,000 bet between Tamay Besiroglu and Mike Knoop. Mike claims that "2024 program synthesis is like 2012 deep learning and that ps will grow in a matching way over the next 10 years like deep learning grew in the 2010s." As of October 2024, 'deep learning' is at 100, while 'program synthesis' is at 1 on Google Trends.

Original bet announcement: https://x.com/tamaybes/status/1850672754426855525

Figure, relative search volume. As of October 2024, ‘deep Learning’ is at 100, and ‘program synthesis’ is at 1.

Resolution: This market resolves according to how Tamay and Mike mutually agree to resolve their bet. If they disagree or don't publicly announce their resolution, the following criteria will be used:

Using Google Trends data as of December 31, 2029 at 11:59PM PT:

Technical Resolution Details (if needed):

  1. Monthly values will be determined using the CSV file downloadable from Google Trends

  2. If monthly CSV data is unavailable, values will be calculated by averaging weekly data points within that month

  3. A month's value must be determined using at least 2 weeks of data to be considered valid

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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