Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

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This question is a duplicate of another question (https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202) scheduled to close later. It is based on a bet between Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor, found here: https://longbets.org/1/ This question will only resolve YES if the Long Now Foundation announces that Ray Kurzweil won the bet. It will resolve to NO if Mitchell Kapor is announced the winner instead. Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below. > Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges. > Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges. > During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews). > The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online "instant messaging" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001. Feb 18, 3:20pm: To clarify, Ray Kurzweil's position is that the Turing Test will be passed by a computer by 2029. In particular, the Long Now Foundation will arrange a Turing Test, and will decide the winner of the bet based on the results of that Turing Test. No other Turing Test will play a role in deciding who wins this bet. Feb 18, 3:22pm: Here's the Metaculus community discussion on the same question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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The real challenge is not to have an AI smart enough to get to a human level of conversation skill, the AI will have to be fine tuned to dumb itself down and not know everything about anything to look human.
This challenge seems like an easy enough task to be achieved today with long enough token context windows and good enough data to be finetuned on. The AI should just be finetuned to create a rather coherent persona.

I wouldn't be impressed if Ray won, but I would be impressed if Ray won and the AI isn't finetuned for the tasks and just figures out by itself how to pass for a human.
That task is deceptive by nature so if the AI manages to win without finetuning, I would be both impressed and a little worried.

predicts NO

@THEWINNER "This challenge seems like an easy enough task to be achieved today with long enough token context windows and good enough data to be finetuned on."

One of the most ridiculous claims I've ever seen on this website.

predicts YES

Turing test is already passed when billionaire shitposts are indistinguishable from gpt

https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/1611229226765783041

predicts YES

killer app is as ventriloquist dummy

predicts NO

Note arbitrage opportunity with https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202 which should match this market's probability.

I encourage folks to arbitrage this to keep it in sync with the version of this prediction that I created.

If anyone wants to have a real-money side bet on this: https://www.biatob.com/p/14159609353626549451

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