I'd be interested in learning what loans I would qualify for. However, any loan less than Ṁ1,000 isn't worth getting out of bed for (for me).

I will sometimes bet to a near-Ṁ0 balance if I see a surefire bet, but I like to have some reserves in the tank in case I see another opportunity arise. I like to "keep the shotgun loaded," metaphorically speaking, and that's when I would imagine myself seeking a loan.

There is a play I want to make at the end of the month for leagues, and I'm soft-looking for a loan in anticipation of it, but I'm not hungry for it... yet.

@Quroe 🦝RISK is a new manifold company that I work for and we are developing an algorithm to determine credit scores for manifold users, as well as an insurance fee calculator. I'll attach a screenshot. Now mind you, this product is in the Alpha Testing phase, so the numbers may not line up quite right with your expectations. 🦝RISK is loan insurance. So the borrower pays us the fee and if the borrower defaults, we pay the lender for their coverage option (in the screenshot, we see 50% of the loan is covered by 🦝RISK). This product will release late April/early May...so very soon!

P.S. We use current balance as a strong indicator of credit score. So users with lots of money invested while having little in their balance are considered less safe to loan to and therefore their rates are higher.

@crowlsyong This seems vulnerable to manipulation. For example, suppose that A lends 1000 mana to B, and B lends 1000 mana to A. Both buy insurance, and then both deliberately default.

In the real world, there would be real legal consequences. With mana, you're out of luck.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 We have systems in place to track and penalize fraud. This kind of thing is indeed an issue, but there are solutions. Since all 🦝RISK transactions are logged, we can use user history as a variable in the credit score calculation. In the worst case, fraud may result in blacklisted accounts.

Edit: in addition, fees for low credit users can exceed 100%, so even if they attempt to play the system, they will ultimately loose mana and we will stay solvent.

@Quroe you have a pretty good profit record recently, though I can't help but notice that for the first half of 2024 your profits were oscillating in the low negatives. What was the cause of this, and can I be confident you won't return to that strategy?

What if you lent me 100k mana, I bet on this market and it resolves yes? That would be free mana.

@100Anonymous BTW, not asking for such loan

@100Anonymous You're right that indeed if I lent 100k mana in one go this would immediately resolve yes, but I think that is very unlikely. From my perspective I would make like max 200 mana by betting yes, while quite possibly losing the 100k mana on a non-repaid loan lol, what would be the incentive to take such a huge risk in one go? I think the most likely case in which this resolves yes is that loads of users consistently borrow and pay back frequent smaller loans, possibly growing to larger loans with earned trust

@TheAllMemeingEye Ok, got it since the returns from betting are limited (have an upper limit).

Cool idea! I'd be interested, too. 😊

@4fa yeah you've got great consistent profit growth

Would 100 mana at 4% interest due in a month be ok to start with?

@TheAllMemeingEye I think that'd be fine to start with! 👍

@4fa Es ist gemacht

@TheAllMemeingEye Super, danke!

I request as big of a loan as possible for an interest rate of at least 2% a month, interest rate negotiable

@spiderduckpig At LEAST 2% interest you say? How about (your entire net worth)%? /s

It looks like you have very impressive consistent rapid profit in the last few months, though for most of the time before that it was fluctuating in the low negatives.

Could you explain the cause of this huge change in performance? Can I be confident that you won't just as suddenly switch to a strategy similar to what you were doing before or worse?

Requesting loan. M200.

I pay 5% interest (so M210) paid back 19/4/2025

Do we have a deal?

@crowlsyong hmmm, your long term profit is quite negative, but in the last month things seem to be improving.

Do you know what caused the improvement, and whether we can expect it to continue?

@TheAllMemeingEye

1. It may be improving because I am watching @Bayesian and @SemioticRivalry and placing small bets similar to theirs.

2. I can’t say confidently that my trend of positive growth will continue.

3. I can say confidently that I want to build my manifold credit, so I will always maintain a balance that is capable of paying back a loan from user.

If you want to proof of reputation, wait until April 19 2025. I have a M1000 loan from Bayesian at 1% interest that will be due that day (so M1010 will be repaid). If all goes well, then that user will vouch for my successful repayment on or after April 19 2025.

@crowlsyong Thanks, if it's ok with you then I will wait to verify that this bayesian loan was paid back successfully 👍

@TheAllMemeingEye Yes that's ok with me 👍

@TheAllMemeingEye I have repaid my loan to bayesian on time and in full. I would like to discuss doing business with you if you are comfortable sending me a loan

Requesting: M200 at 5% interest = M210 due May 1 2025

Do we have a deal?

@crowlsyong sounds good 👍 lemme just verify

@Bayesian can you confirm that the loan of 1000 mana was indeed repaid?

@TheAllMemeingEye It’s in the managram transaction history and yes

@Bayesian thanks 👍

@crowlsyong it is done

@TheAllMemeingEye received. Thank you.

@TheAllMemeingEye

I said

Requesting: M200 at 5% interest = M210 due May 1 2025

Your managram message says you want it due May 19 2025. I would like you to clarify which date I am to repay your loan. Either is fine with me.

@crowlsyong ah, my apologies, I should've paid more attention. Let's say the more lenient deadline in the managram message is the one that applies. It's worth noting that you are allowed to pay back a loan early and doing so may allow you to get another loan sooner.