I will not bet in this market to avoid incentives for dishonest resolution
I will attempt to give updates in the comments on life developments that significantly affect the odds for any option, within the limits of not doxxing myself or others
Relevant context and clarifications for each outcome:
Death:
I am a mid-twenties male living in the UK
I have no known terminal illnesses
I am not significantly overweight, and eat a balanced mostly vegan diet
I don't usually exercise but do regularly walk to work
I don't smoke and only drink alcohol occasionally
I don't have a dangerous profession
If indefinite life extension becomes widely available, affordable, and safe during my lifetime, and the world doesn’t appear to be heading into a hellish dystopia, I would be fairly likely to try to get it
I’m counting my physical body here, I currently view brain upload emulations as more like copying myself than them literally being me
Lightning:
The UK base rate is ~1/1M per person yearly (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_strike)
I don't tend to go outside during thunderstorms
Cards:
So far I've only found myself in a situation where I've needed to shuffle a deck of cards maybe once every few years, though it's possible I could take on a hobby involving card games in the future
Exact ascending order here means groups in order [clubs, diamonds, hearts, spades] and within each group in order [1, … , 10, J, Q, K, A]
There are 52 cards per deck so 52! = ~8×10^67 possible orders
Billionaire:
There are currently ~2000 billionaires globally
I do not know any billionaires personally, and am not currently expecting to inherit a vast fortune or business
My career path is currently aimed at scientific research, though it involves numerical and computational skills that might be transferable to finance
It needs to be in USD, GBP, or EUR
I'm counting net worth, not just liquid money in accounts
Head of state / government:
There are currently ~200 heads of state / government globally
I do not know any heads of state / government personally, though I did once meet and shake hands with a major head of state at a ceremonial event I happened to be present at by sheer coincidence several years ago
As mentioned, my career path is currently aimed at scientific research, though I have a strong layman amateur interest in politics, and some recent world leaders have suddenly become in charge despite background outside politics e.g. Reagan was an actor, Trump was a nepo baby businessman, Harris was a district attorney, Walz was a soldier and sports coach, Zelensky was a comedian, Putin was a KGB agent, Thatcher was a chemist, Starmer was a human rights lawyer etc.
I have extremely unusual philosophical / political beliefs which may alienate voters and politicians alike
Prize:
Example hyper-prestigious international prizes include but aren't limited to
Nobel prize (physics, chemistry, medicine, literature, economics, peace)
Turing award (computer science)
Fields medal (mathematics)
Pulitzer prize (journalism, literature, music)
Oscar, Emmy, Tony, Golden Globe, BAFTA (TV and cinema)
Olympic medals (various sports)
Hugo award, Nebula award (science-fiction and fantasy writing)
Grammy (music)
Sharing the award still counts
I have a high grade physics degree from a prestigious university and am working in scientific research
I am early in my career, and have thus not yet had my research published in journals, but have presented my research at a national science conference
I intend to aim my career at producing research that helps others as much as possible
Followers / subscribers:
I have accounts on Instagram, YouTube, and LinkedIn, that I have never used to post content
I have an account on Facebook which I used to occasionally post travel photos several years ago
I have an account on Reddit, and used to on Google+, which I used to frequently post original memes several years ago
My Manifold account is currently the only one I actively use to post content
I currently only have a few dozen followers total across all my accounts
I have the hope that within a few years I might have enough consistent free time to start creating and posting various recreational project ideas that have been building up, both on my existing anonymous accounts (YouTube, Reddit) and on potential new ones (Xitter, Threads, TikTok, DeviantArt, ArtStation, Effective Altruism Forum, LessWrong, a personal website etc.)
Moon:
Only 12 people have walked on the moon so far, during the Apollo program, but the ongoing Artemis program plans to resume moon landings in the late 2020s
It's possible that the Artemis program could eventually lead to the establishment of permanent moon bases
I would not even attempt to join a space mission while the likelihood of death per launch remains >1% unless I had nothing to lose e.g. terminal illness, impending earth destruction etc.
With impending vast technological growth, there is a significant possibility that one day space travel may be safe enough, and as a scientific researcher, a very small but technically non-zero possibility that I may qualify for and join one of the later routine research missions on the moon bases
Beliefs:
A broad summary of my current philosophical and political beliefs would be:
Normative ethics i.e. fundamentally what is good?: moral realism, consequentialism, pluralist balance between negative-leaning utilitarianism and egoism
Applied ethics i.e. in practice what should we do as individuals to achieve goodness?: effective altruism
Epistemics i.e. fundamentally what is true?: empiricism, rationalism, scientific method
Politics i.e. in practice what system should society use to achieve goodness?
Economic politics i.e. system of production and distribution of resources and services: at least Nordic-style welfarism, possibly outright anarcho-communism (worker-owned democratically-controlled industry, decentralised planned economy with UBI)
Governmental politics i.e. system of leadership and law enforcement: proportional representation democracy for parliament, iterated universal nomination election for technocratic council of advisors, anti-authoritarianism
Cultural politics i.e. system of attitude towards societal changes like moral circle expansion, globalisation, and technology: hyper-progressivism, universal compassion (feminism, anti-racism, LGBT+ rights, animal rights, AI rights, alien rights), hyper-internationalism (world government, open borders), techno-cautious
My current views are vastly different from how they were when I was a child or teenager, but mostly similar to how they were upon reaching adulthood
Virginity:
Ain't never gonna happen in a gazillion years lol, basically a guaranteed no resolution
I think I look ok but I also gather that in general people perceive me as a loner weirdo
I am a straight cisgender male
My friendship group consists of perhaps a half dozen distant friends, 2 close friends, and 2 close family members, is of roughly equal gender balance, and has low-to-moderate relationship success rate
I tried online dating for the first time for a few months last year, which led to 7 matches, 3 first dates, and eventually 1 relationship, which due to unfortunate life circumstances outside our control had to end almost immediately after becoming official, and the breakup harmed my morale at work enough that I haven't attempted dating again since then
I have significant neurodivergence, most notably autism, OCD, and ADD
I am perhaps irrationally paranoid that attempting to pursue one night stands / hook-ups with strangers would lead to me being slandered, extorted, abused, abducted, or even murdered
I would define losing virginity as any consensual intentional sexual stimulation, giving or receiving
Update 2025-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification for the 'Death' outcome:
Definition: 'I don’t die' means surviving for the entire century, being alive at market close on 2100-01-01T23:59:00.000Z.
Note: It does not mean simply not dying for any given day within the century.
1,000
@TheAllMemeingEye update: my first piece of co-authored research is in the process of being published with a peer reviewed scientific journal that is ranked at a few dozen-th place in its field globally for h-index
@TheAllMemeingEye How literally is the "all" meant? If not very literally, I think this is quite likely.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen from the description:
Exact ascending order here means groups in order [clubs, diamonds, hearts, spades] and within each group in order [1, … , 10, J, Q, K, A]
There are 52 cards per deck so 52! = ~8×10^67 possible orders
I have never learned the actual rules of any card games e.g. bridge, so this order is basically me guessing lol
@JussiVilleHeiskanen ah thanks, is there a name for the technique where you repeatedly remove a random middle section of the deck and put it on the front or back? I usually just do that for a minute or so lol. I suppose what you're getting at is that some shuffle techniques are more true vs pseudo random, right?
@TheAllMemeingEye there is a particular split shuffle technique where every second card are mixed that only takes a few shuffles to restore the deck to original
Is this entire market just a ploy to get you laid? If so, I support that (through thoughts and prayers).
Tbf it's more like I was craving a confidence boost from having the rational market tell me that the odds of success aren't as low as they feel when I'm having a bad day lol
It also occurred to me I could make the market more interesting to traders by adding a bunch of other stuff that I pretend is of similarly low likelihood as a self depreciating joke
Arguably it's currently in a situation where a wannabe market manipulator is incentivised to try to sabotage my love life haha
@Quroe lol that interpretation didn't occur to me, in this context it means surviving the whole century, not a day within it, good catch though
@Quroe good point, now I just need to make sure the electorate consist entirely of Manifold users haha
@jim Lol it's complicated
The ♠ in my username was mostly due to a bounty a while back titled something like 'Want to be cool and nifty? Join the spades guild by putting a ♠ in your username for free mana!', though after half hour of searching I can't find it so maybe I just imagined it
In truth, I admit in the past I've played with the idea I might be grey-ace or something (which also partly motivated the spade), like every few days my mind seems to switch between being into it and being intensely repulsed by it, but the fraction of time in repulsed mode seems to be decreasing with time, so I'm probably just straight with mood swings or some shit
I'm also perhaps irrationally paranoid that any future totalitarian far right regimes might kill me if I publicly commit to any weird labels haha
@jim Thanks, I didn't know of it until now, hopefully some more progressive governments can join so I wouldn't get permanently blacklisted from all Western orgs lol
