The ceasefire agreement must:
1) Be confirmed by reputable media outlets, and
2) Last at least one week with no significant recorded violations of the ceasefire (I'm defining "significant violation" as a military action by either side that results in at least one death during the agreed upon duration of the ceasefire)
Since the ceasefire would need to last at least 7 days in 2024, the question will still resolve as NO if a ceasefire agreement is reached at the end of December, e.g. on December 28th.
If somehow a permanent peace deal is reached without a temporary ceasefire, then this question will also resolve YES.
EDIT (12/02/24): Jumping in to resolve some ambiguity in the resolution criteria. Since Israel and Hezbollah are currently under a ceasefire agreement, this question will resolve positively if there are 7 consecutive days with no recorded deaths during 2024. So, it could still resolve as YES even though major violations of the ceasefire have been reported.
1,000
3.00@mods can we get a resolution on this? Creator seems to be inactive.
I proposed that this should have resolved to December 19 on the basis that the last credible report of a fatality from a ceasefire violation was on December 12, but that proposal was obviously quite contentious due to the fact that there was another report of a ceasefire violation on December 14 which, imo, was/is not credible (I laid out my opinion, but obviously a fair few users have downvoted albeit with no rebuttal). However, even if we accept that the contentious ceasefire violation on Dec 14 is credible, there has been seven consecutive days without any fatal violations (Dec 14 to 20) as far as I can tell.
Edit: accidental post
@Tristan I propose that this resolves to "Yes". Ceasefire is in effect and from what I can ascertain, there has been seven consecutive days with no deaths as a result of Israeli or Hezbollah attacks.
The last death occurred on December 12 as per Times of Israel:
"Lebanon said an Israeli strike on the border town of Khiam killed one person earlier today, hours after Washington announced Israel had withdrawn from the area as Lebanon’s army deployed under a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah."
It was reported that there was another Israeli strike on December 17 as per a Times of Israel reporter:
"The IDF says it carried out a drone strike in southern Lebanon earlier today, targeting a Hezbollah operative who was violating the ceasefire agreement after he was was spotted loading up a vehicle with weapons. The drone strike was carried out to "remove a threat," the military says."
There seems to be a bit of ambiguity about this post regarding casualties and deaths resulting from the strike (was it the car or the person who was "removed" - or both?) however, there are no explicitly confirmed deaths from this Tweet.
BUT, doing a bit more research, both Jewish and non-Jewish news outlets confirm there were no casualties:
"The IDF says it carried out a drone strike in southern Lebanon earlier today, targeting a Hezbollah operative who was violating the ceasefire agreement after he was was spotted loading up a vehicle with weapons. The drone strike was carried out to "remove a threat," the military says."
"Earlier on Tuesday, the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al Akhbarreported that a drone targeted a vehicle in the village of Majdal Zoun. According to the report, two people were wounded in the drone strike."
"In the Tyre district, an Israeli drone strike targeted a car in the town of Majdalzoun, leaving three people injured."
There was second report of a single death from another Israeli strike on the December 15 (Edit: 14th not 15th), but I outlined my reasons why this wasn't a credible report in this conversation. To summarise:
Only Lebanese outlets report this alleged attack.
This Lebanese outlet actually contradicts the date it occurred on with a caption stating: "Impact of an Israeli drone that targeted a car in the al-Khardali area, south Lebanon on December 12, 2024".
This Tweet shows the car smoking, but largely intact on the alleged day of the incident. (Useful comparison Tweet - it's quite clear, in my opinion, this was not a drone strike as claimed.)
@vitamind there needs to be evidence of an agreement, ceasefire alone should not be enough given the title?
@Paradoxicorn I don't follow? There is an agreement in place, see this article which I linked in my original post: 2024 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire agreement
Reset the clock to the 15th...
https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/309834-one-person-killed-in-israeli-strike-on-al-khardali
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer I appreciate you keeping a close eye on this, but a few things to consider:
This was first reported on 3:23 PM · Dec 14, 2024.
There is not enough information to credibly say this attack was carried out by Israel.
It's credited as a drone strike but pictures on Twitter show the car intact, and then burnt out due to a small fire; there's also no visible scorch marks nor videos of the actual strike...
None of the sources for this alleged attack appear to be credible, imo.
Israeli media does an excellent job at covering ceasefire "violations" which includes neutral, pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu news outlets. If they don't report it, and only a few, very minor Lebanese outlets do, it's not a "clock reset", IMHO.
@vitamind 1 -> I suspect we are in different timezones (the tweet you link to shows 02:23 December 15th for me)? So long as the seven day window is consistent it's not a big drama...
2 - 5 -> If the UN can unironically quote the Gazan Health Ministry for realsies, I feel like I should be able to quote the Lebanese Health Ministry for internet points...
Probably worth noting that contrary to the Lebanese media claims none of these strikes are violations of the actual ceasefire agreement if the victims are, as seems likely, Hezbollah operatives (whose presence south of the relevant line is a violation), but that's the resolution criteria we're working with.
"If the UN can unironically quote the Gazan Health Ministry for realsies, I feel like I should be able to quote the Lebanese Health Ministry for internet points..."
We can do some whataboutery, but, IMHO: this is not a credible report of a ceasefire violation.
Furthermore, this article states that the attack occurred on December 12. See the photograph caption:
"Impact of an Israeli drone that targeted a car in the al-Khardali area, south Lebanon on December 12, 2024"
I'm working on the basis that the last violation was the Israeli strike on the border town of Khiam which killed one person - as per the Times of Israeli article you linked below - on December 12.
Therefore, as it stands, this resolves to "Yes" on December 19, say, 23:59 local time. Though, of course, this is up to the question author - I'm just forming my own basis.
@vitamind The tweet, posted just seven minutes ago, says the attack happened earlier today, which is very different from what you were claiming.
@AviSchwartz Confirmed by IDF https://x.com/idfonline/status/1869095104688107926
@vitamind right, this one was more recent than the attack you and @PaulBenjaminPhotographer were discussing.