I'm throwing down the gauntlet! Here's how this market works:
Any Manifold user may challenge me to a match. Any given user may make one attempt if they hold 2000 YES shares in this market. The requirement doubles for every attempt after. So they need to hold 2000 shares before making their first attempt, 6000 total shares if they want to make a second attempt, 14000 shares if they want to make a third account, etc. When you are placing a bet, your 'Max payout' is how many shares you are buying.
Tumbles is obligated to accept any challenge from someone with enough shares. Also, Tumbles must be willing to buy NO shares at 69% if they have the mana to spare to allow challengers to take their shot. Tumbles may of course buy shares much lower than 69% as well, feel free to negotiate a price in the comments! Tumbles will never buy YES shares or sell NO shares.
Once a challenge is issued the match should be scheduled in the near future. The match will be played online via Slippi. Tumbles will be present in Discord voice chat during the match and stream it to Twitch.
Ruleset:
-Four stocks, 8 minute timer, no items
-First to win four games wins the match
-Stagelist: Battlefield, Yoshi's Story, Final Destination, Fountain of Dreams, Pokemon Stadium, Dream Land, Rainbow Cruise, Poke Floats
-Game one played on Battlefield. Afterwards, the loser of previous game chooses the next stage (can't pick a stage you've already won a game on)
Resolves YES if someone challenges Tumbles and wins. Otherwise, resolves NO at scheduled close date.
List of defeated challengers so far:
-
Related: https://manifold.markets/browse/tumbles-stream
1,000
1.00I'm really interested by this market format, and I'd like to run a similar market, but I'd like to better understand how the market is set up before doing so. Is there some specific significance behind 69% besides the meme? If it was primarily chosen for the meme, is there another percentage which would make more sense mathematically?
Also, my net worth is very small compared to Tumbles. How should I adjust the challenge requirements?
Also, my net worth is very small compared to Tumbles. How should I adjust the challenge requirements?
The parts that are sensitive to net worth are (1) 2,000 shares to challenge, & (2) the commitment to buy shares:
Tumbles must be willing to buy NO shares at 69% if they have the mana to spare to allow challengers to take their shot.
First you can tweak the price. Tumbles committed to buying NO at 69% (for the meme), i.e. he would bet up to 620M (2000M*.31) per challenge. If you wanted to make it a bit easier on yourself (fair!), you could give yourself a better price. If you only committed to buying at e.g. ~88%, then you could cover the 2000 shares per challenge with just your daily 250M streak bonus.
I'd also recommend adopting Tumbles' later addition that each challenge requires double the shares of the last challenge, so people with a lot of mana can't just challenge you 20 times. Or you could just do one-challenge-per-user, that's a fair enough rule. OR you could simply only commit to buying NO shares when asked to facilitate a first-time challenger (and otherwise if they want to challenge you again they need to buy enough YES shares without your help).
And finally of course you can just adjust the stakes of 2000 shares per challenge, if you want to keep the stakes lower. But I wanted to highlight the price first because even if you stick with 2000 shares per challenge, you can still limit pretty easily how much you personally have to spend to run the market.
Please do! (If it’s not too much work, would love to see)
https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/during-showdown-matches-how-many-ki
Be sure to read the description, don't miss the special uno reverse rule
Made a market to bet on the first match:
/Ziddletwix/tumbles-versus-tripping-who-will-wi
LET'S GOOOOOOO
@SG acc owns a few thousand shares, so it has earned an attempt against tumbles. can you teach it to play smash?
Just have the program be
if (user.isNewOrBad()){
betAgainst()
}
I'm away from my setup until next week, but assuming that @Tripping doesn't resolve the market before then, I'll do it.
I feel like that's a big enough change that you shouldn't be able to do it. This is a silly market so I'm not gonna complain but that hugely changes the terms of the market. People bet in anticipation of being able to bet in the future for more attempts
i agree in principle although in practice by any accounting @Tripping currently has a preposterous number of attempts stocked up against tumbles so i would be very surprised if it mattered