Who will be sworn in as the Prime Minister of India following the next-next (2029) general election?
Basic
32
Ṁ16872029
33%
Narendra Modi
14%
10%
Amit Shah
8%
Devendra Fadnavis
8%
Rahul Gandhi
8%
Yogi Adityanath
6%
Nitin Gadkari
4%
Shivraj Singh Chouhan
3%
S. Jaishankar
3%
Mallikarjun Kharge
2%
Arvind Kejriwal
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first person to take the oath of office as Prime Minister of India after the next-next general election (likely to be held in 2029).
If no one takes the oath of office as Prime Minister of India after said general election before 2030, this market shall resolve to "No one before 2030".
This market's closing date and time, currently 8:00 UTC, 1 July 2029, may be pushed back if needed to ensure that it can stay open until the results are clear.
I will not bet on this market.
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There was a massive arbitrage opportunity against https://manifold.markets/manyu/who-will-be-the-bjps-pm-candidate-f (e.g. Modi 67% vs 12%).
I took it.
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